TennisEdge's AI bot is backing Y. Wu +7.5 (game handicap) at 1.97 in Y. Wu vs C. Alcaraz (US Open on 2026-09-04). Result: LOST.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | Y. Wu | C. Alcaraz |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
6.5% | 93.5% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
12.9% | 87.1% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
20.8% | 79.2% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
13.7% | 86.3% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
13.6% | 86.4% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y. Wu | hard | 1764 | 91–39 | 130 |
| C. Alcaraz | hard | 2160 | 166–45 | 211 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Sept. 4, 2026.
C. Alcaraz leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sept. 4, 2026 | US Open | hard | C. Alcaraz | 3 - 0 |
| Oct. 6, 2024 | ATP Shanghai | hard | C. Alcaraz | 2 - 0 |
| L | C. Alcaraz | 0 - 3 | Sept. 4, 2026 |
| W | J. Duckworth | 0 - 3 | Sept. 2, 2026 |
| W | A. Walton | 3 - 0 | Aug. 30, 2026 |
| L | F. Comesana | 2 - 0 | Aug. 23, 2026 |
| L | J. Faria | 2 - 0 | Aug. 13, 2026 |
| L | B. Shelton | 3 - 2 | Sept. 9, 2026 |
| W | T. Paul | 0 - 3 | Sept. 6, 2026 |
| W | Y. Wu | 0 - 3 | Sept. 4, 2026 |
| W | J. Faria | 1 - 3 | Sept. 3, 2026 |
| W | R. Safiullin | 0 - 3 | Aug. 31, 2026 |
All Sept. 4, 2026 results & picks →