TennisEdge's AI bot is backing Y. Wu +7.5 (game handicap) at 1.97 in Y. Wu vs C. Alcaraz (US Open on 2026-09-04). Result: LOST.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | Y. Wu | C. Alcaraz |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
6.5% | 93.5% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
12.9% | 87.1% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
20.8% | 79.2% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
13.7% | 86.3% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
13.6% | 86.4% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y. Wu | hard | 1730 | 93–42 | 135 |
| C. Alcaraz | hard | 2210 | 183–46 | 229 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Oct. 27, 2026.
C. Alcaraz leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sept. 4, 2026 | US Open | hard | C. Alcaraz | 3 - 0 |
| Oct. 6, 2024 | ATP Shanghai | hard | C. Alcaraz | 2 - 0 |
| L | S. C. Hong | 2 - 0 | Oct. 27, 2026 |
| L | J. Cui | 2 - 0 | Oct. 22, 2026 |
| W | H. Matsuoka | 0 - 2 | Oct. 20, 2026 |
| L | A. Zverev | 2 - 0 | Oct. 9, 2026 |
| W | M. Zheng | 2 - 0 | Oct. 7, 2026 |
| W | B. Shelton | 0 - 2 | Nov. 8, 2026 |
| W | C. Ruud | 0 - 2 | Nov. 7, 2026 |
| W | T. Fritz | 1 - 2 | Nov. 6, 2026 |
| W | M. Berrettini | Walk Over | Nov. 5, 2026 |
| W | A. Michelsen | 0 - 2 | Nov. 4, 2026 |
All Sept. 4, 2026 results & picks →