TennisEdge's AI bot is backing D. Merida Aguilar +2.5 (game handicap) at 1.96 in A. Michelsen vs D. Merida Aguilar (US Open on 2026-09-04). Result: LOST.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | A. Michelsen | D. Merida Aguilar |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
52.9% | 47.1% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
55.1% | 44.9% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
63.5% | 36.5% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
58.2% | 41.8% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
60.2% | 39.8% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Michelsen | hard | 1895 | 160–94 | 254 |
| D. Merida Aguilar | hard | 1812 | 66–46 | 112 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Nov. 12, 2026.
A. Michelsen leads 2–1 over 3 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sept. 4, 2026 | US Open | hard | A. Michelsen | 3 - 0 |
| Aug. 7, 2026 | Montreal | hard | D. Merida Aguilar | 2 - 1 |
| March 6, 2026 | ATP Indian Wells | hard | A. Michelsen | 2 - 0 |
| L | A. Tabilo | 0 - 2 | Nov. 12, 2026 |
| W | J. M. Cerundolo | 2 - 0 | Nov. 10, 2026 |
| W | Y. Hanfmann | 2 - 0 | Nov. 9, 2026 |
| L | C. Alcaraz | 0 - 2 | Nov. 4, 2026 |
| W | J. Lehecka | 2 - 1 | Nov. 3, 2026 |
| L | T. Paul | 2 - 0 | Nov. 4, 2026 |
| W | S. Baez | 2 - 0 | Nov. 2, 2026 |
| L | D. Medvedev | 0 - 2 | Oct. 28, 2026 |
| L | B. Van De Zandschulp | 2 - 1 | Oct. 8, 2026 |
| W | A. Tabilo | 1 - 2 | Sept. 19, 2026 |
All Sept. 4, 2026 results & picks →