TennisEdge's AI bot is backing D. Merida Aguilar +2.5 (game handicap) at 1.96 in A. Michelsen vs D. Merida Aguilar (US Open on 2026-09-04). Result: LOST.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | A. Michelsen | D. Merida Aguilar |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
52.9% | 47.1% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
55.1% | 44.9% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
63.5% | 36.5% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
58.2% | 41.8% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
60.2% | 39.8% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Michelsen | hard | 1909 | 154–88 | 242 |
| D. Merida Aguilar | hard | 1841 | 65–43 | 108 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Sept. 8, 2026.
A. Michelsen leads 2–1 over 3 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sept. 4, 2026 | US Open | hard | A. Michelsen | 3 - 0 |
| Aug. 7, 2026 | Montreal | hard | D. Merida Aguilar | 2 - 1 |
| March 6, 2026 | ATP Indian Wells | hard | A. Michelsen | 2 - 0 |
| L | F. Tiafoe | 3 - 2 | Sept. 8, 2026 |
| W | T. M. Etcheverry | 3 - 0 | Sept. 6, 2026 |
| W | D. Merida Aguilar | 3 - 0 | Sept. 4, 2026 |
| W | B. Nakashima | 0 - 3 | Sept. 2, 2026 |
| W | F. Cina | 3 - 0 | Aug. 31, 2026 |
| L | A. Michelsen | 3 - 0 | Sept. 4, 2026 |
| W | A. Rublev | 3 - 1 | Sept. 2, 2026 |
| W | M. Fucsovics | 3 - 0 | Aug. 30, 2026 |
| L | T. Fritz | 2 - 0 | Aug. 18, 2026 |
| W | Z. Bergs | 2 - 0 | Aug. 16, 2026 |
All Sept. 4, 2026 results & picks →