TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in N. Osaka vs E. Lys (Rome on 2026-05-08) — the market is efficient, with N. Osaka favoured at 1.30.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | N. Osaka | E. Lys |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
50.9% | 49.1% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
48.5% | 51.4% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
49.0% | 51.0% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
49.5% | 50.5% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
72.9% | 27.1% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 1, 2026.
N. Osaka leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 8, 2026 | Rome | clay | N. Osaka | 2 - 1 |
| L | A. Eala | 0 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | E. Cocciaretto | 1 - 2 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | A. Krueger | 0 - 1 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | K. Muchova | 0 - 2 | July 7, 2026 |
| W | A. Sabalenka | 0 - 2 | July 5, 2026 |
| L | P. Udvardy | 1 - 1 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | D. Shnaider | 2 - 0 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | E. Navarro | 0 - 2 | June 23, 2026 |
| L | E. Svitolina | 2 - 0 | June 18, 2026 |
| W | M. Frech | 0 - 2 | June 16, 2026 |
All May 8, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used