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N. Bartunkova vs B. Krejcikova — Prediction & Analysis

Wimbledon · WTA Wimbledon - 1/16-finals · July 3, 2026 · 12:00 UTC

TennisEdge's AI bot is backing N. Bartunkova (moneyline) in N. Bartunkova vs B. Krejcikova (Wimbledon on 2026-07-03).

Surface grass Odds N. Bartunkova 2.75 · B. Krejcikova 1.44

Bot bet

N. Bartunkova (moneyline) · 1.5u
Pending — published before the match, graded in public.
Profiles: N. Bartunkova · B. Krejcikova · head-to-head record · Wimbledon

Model probabilities

Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.

Method N. Bartunkova B. Krejcikova
Elo
ratings-based, surface-weighted
44.7% 55.3%
Machine learning
29-feature gradient-boosted model
56.1% 43.9%
Serve / return
point-by-point simulation
45.1% 54.9%
Blend
what the bot actually prices off
44.5% 55.5%
Market implied
de-vigged from the opening odds
34.4% 65.6%

We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?

Elo ratings

PlayerSurfaceEloRecordMatches
N. Bartunkova clay1676 72–40112
B. Krejcikova hard1893 82–51133

Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 23, 2026.

Head to head

B. Krejcikova leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.

DateEventSurfaceWinnerScore
July 3, 2026WimbledongrassB. Krejcikova2 - 0

Recent form

N. Bartunkova

W B. Andreescu 2 - 0 Aug. 3, 2026
L L. Tararudee 1 - 2 July 23, 2026
W Y. Yuan 2 - 1 July 21, 2026
L B. Krejcikova 0 - 2 July 3, 2026
W K. Siniakova 0 - 2 July 1, 2026

B. Krejcikova

L L. Tagger 2 - 1 July 25, 2026
W D. Salkova 0 - 2 July 24, 2026
W L. Havlickova 0 - 2 July 23, 2026
W L. Fruhvirtova 0 - 2 July 21, 2026
W M. Sakkari 2 - 0 July 19, 2026

All July 3, 2026 results & picks →

Full analysis

═══════════════════════════════════════════
N. Bartunkova (A) vs B. Krejcikova (B)
Wimbledon · grass · 1/16-finals · 2026-07-03
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MODELS
  ELO   A 0.447  → favors B (agrees w/ market)
  ML    A 0.561  → favors A (DISAGREES w/ market, +22pt)
  Model A 0.445  → ensemble leans B
  Market A 2.75 (impl 34.4%) / B 1.44 (impl 65.6%)
  Value pick A · edge +10.1% (post-shrink) · 0.25-Kelly
───────────────────────────────────────────
FORM — Bartunkova (A), grass surge
  W Siniakova (1766 Strong) 6-2 6-4   DOM
  W Stearns  (1470 Weak)    4-6 6-3 7-5 GRIND
  L Sabalenka(1913 Elite)   2-6 7-6 4-6 (took a set)
  W Mertens  (1774 Strong)  6-1 6-4   DOM
  W Shnaider (1719 Strong)  6-2 6-7 6-3 GRIND
  → Birmingham finalist; two DOM wins vs Strong on grass
FORM — Krejcikova (B), ex-Wimbledon champ
  W Andreeva (1683 Strong)  4-6 7-5 6-4 GRIND (fightback)
  W Klugman  (1512 Weak)    6-1 6-4   DOM
  L Birrell  (1591 Avg)     3-6 6-7   flat
  Hertogenbosch final (WO withdrawal) + SF/QF sweep
  → solid, but recent quality-of-wins below A's
───────────────────────────────────────────
FATIGUE
  A: 3 matches/14d, ~258min court, last 07-01
  B: 3 matches/14d, ~228min court, last 07-01
  → Roughly equal; slight edge B on court time (<60min diff)
NARRATIVE
  Let-down: none in window (A's last final 26d ago)
  Venue: Slam debut-tier for A; B has grass pedigree
  Title recency: none <14d
───────────────────────────────────────────
VERDICT — BET A 1.5u @2.75
  ML flags +10% value on Bartunkova. Her DOM wins over
  Siniakova & Mertens (both ~1770) plus a set off Sabalenka
  show live grass form that outclasses her 34% implied price
  — the Krejcikova line looks reputation-heavy. ELO/ensemble
  still lean B, so size modest. Krejcikova the likelier winner
  (predicted), Bartunkova the value side.
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