TennisEdge's AI bot is backing M. Fucsovics (moneyline) in A. Davidovich Fokina vs M. Fucsovics (Wimbledon on 2026-07-03).
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | A. Davidovich Fokina | M. Fucsovics |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
57.7% | 42.3% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
49.1% | 50.9% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
65.7% | 34.3% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
62.3% | 37.7% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
73.6% | 26.4% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Davidovich Fokina | hard | 1851 | 107–90 | 197 |
| M. Fucsovics | hard | 1755 | 95–76 | 171 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated March 21, 2026.
A. Davidovich Fokina leads 2–1 over 3 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 3, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | A. Davidovich Fokina | 3 - 0 |
| Aug. 31, 2022 | US Open | hard | A. Davidovich Fokina | 3 - 2 |
| March 4, 2021 | Rotterdam | hard | M. Fucsovics | 2 - 0 |
| L | A. Molcan | 2 - 1 | July 16, 2026 |
| W | M. Trungelliti | 0 - 2 | July 15, 2026 |
| L | F. Auger-Aliassime | 3 - 2 | July 5, 2026 |
| W | M. Fucsovics | 3 - 0 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | F. Marozsan | 3 - 0 | July 1, 2026 |
| L | C. Moutet | 0 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | A. Davidovich Fokina | 3 - 0 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | L. Tien | 3 - 1 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | L. van Assche | 0 - 1 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | B. Nakashima | 2 - 0 | June 16, 2026 |
All July 3, 2026 results & picks →
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A. Davidovich Fokina vs M. Fucsovics
Wimbledon · grass · 1/16-finals (best-of-5)
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MODELS
Market : A 1.32 / B 3.68 (impl A 73.6% · B 26.4%)
ELO : A 57.7%
ML : A 49.1% ← leans B
Blend : A 62.3%
Value pick B · edge +11.3% (post-shrink)
→ ML & ELO both well below market: market is pricing ADF's hot streak/name, models are not.
FORM
A. Davidovich Fokina (6 straight W, grass on fire):
07-01 W Marozsan (1597 Avg) 6-3 6-0 6-3 DOM
06-29 W Cerundolo (1445 Weak) 6-4 6-4 7-6 GRIND
06-27 W Quinn (1676 Strong) 7-6 6-3 GRIND ← MALLORCA FINAL / TITLE
06-26 W Marozsan (1592 Avg) 3-set GRIND
06-25 W Dimitrov (1788 Strong) 6-3 6-3 DOM ← quality scalp
06-24 W Walton (1370 Weak) 6-4 7-5 GRIND
M. Fucsovics (spotty grass):
07-01 W Tien (1623 Avg) 6-7 6-4 7-6 6-3 GRIND (4 sets)
06-29 W van Assche (1486 Weak) ret. (3-6 0-4) walkover, minimal legs
06-16 L Nakashima (1745) 6-3 6-3 straights
06-11 L Auger-Aliassime (1716) 6-3 6-4 straights
06-10 W Hurkacz (1826 Strong) 3-6 7-6 7-6 GRIND ← quality scalp
FATIGUE
A: 8 matches/14d · 6/7d · 24 sets · 753 min court · back-to-back 4 · 2d rest
B: 2 matches/14d · 6 sets · 231 min court · 0 back-to-back · 2d rest
Court-time gap 522 min (>>60) → ADF heavily disadvantaged, AMPLIFIED by best-of-5 at a Slam.
TITLE: Mallorca 6d ago (grass) — momentum, but the legs carry the whole title run.
NARRATIVE
Let-down: won Mallorca Final 6d ago → WEAK window; already survived 2 Wimb rounds so not triggered,
but cumulative load is the real story.
Live form FOR A (DOM Dimitrov, 6-0 set vs Marozsan 2d ago = no visible fatigue yet).
Counter: Bo5 exposes tired legs late; Fucsovics fresh, can grind, beat Hurkacz on grass.
VERDICT
ADF is the more likely match-winner (~62%) but the market's 73.6% overprices him given an
extreme 6-in-7 workload heading into best-of-5. Fair Fucsovics ~37% vs 27% break-even @3.68.
Both models (ML near even, ELO 58%) validate the underdog. Genuine value on B.
→ BET B (Fucsovics) @3.68 · 2.0u. Predicted winner remains ADF; this is a value/underdog play.
Risk: ADF's live form is elite and could simply overpower a fatigued grinder.