TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in J. Pegula vs J. Bouzas Maneiro (Wimbledon on 2026-07-03) — the market is efficient, with J. Pegula favoured at 1.06.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | J. Pegula | J. Bouzas Maneiro |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
70.2% | 29.8% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
91.7% | 8.3% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
49.6% | 50.4% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
77.0% | 23.0% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
92.2% | 7.8% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Pegula | hard | 2077 | 192–73 | 265 |
| J. Bouzas Maneiro | clay | 1679 | 122–67 | 189 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.
J. Pegula leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 3, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | J. Pegula | 2 - 0 |
| Aug. 31, 2024 | WTA US Open | hard | J. Pegula | 2 - 0 |
| L | A. Eala | 1 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| W | D. Shnaider | 2 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | A. Kalinskaya | 2 - 0 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | M. Frech | 2 - 1 | July 30, 2026 |
| L | C. Gauff | 1 - 2 | July 7, 2026 |
| W | A. Arseneault | 2 - 0 | Aug. 2, 2026 |
| L | M. Bouzkova | 2 - 0 | July 20, 2026 |
| L | Q. Zheng | 2 - 0 | July 13, 2026 |
| L | J. Pegula | 2 - 0 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | D. Yastremska | 1 - 2 | July 1, 2026 |
All July 3, 2026 results & picks →
═══════════════════════════════════════════════ J. Pegula (A) vs J. Bouzas Maneiro (B) Wimbledon · grass · 1/16-finals · 2026-07-03 ═══════════════════════════════════════════════ MODELS Market: A 1.06 / B 12.5 (impl A 92.2% · B 7.8%) ELO: A 70.2% ML: A 91.7% Model: A 77.0% / B 23.0% Bot: BET B 2.5u (edge +15.2%, 0.25-Kelly) — ELO-driven FORM — Pegula (grass, live) W vs Sorribes Tormo (1541) 7-6 6-1 GRIND W vs Vidmanova (1622) 7-5 6-3 DOM L Berlin FINAL vs Noskova (1853,Elite) 4-6 6-4 3-6 (12d ago) W Berlin SF vs Sabalenka (1931,Elite) 4-6 7-6 6-0 GRIND W Berlin QF vs Keys (1836,Strong) 7-6 7-6 GRIND W Berlin R16 vs Siniakova (1799,Strong) 6-2 6-4 DOM Read: peak grass form — beat Sabalenka/Keys/Siniakova en route to a grass final. Elite-level scalps. Clear class edge on this surface. FORM — Bouzas Maneiro (grass, live) W Wimb 1/32 vs Yastremska (1684) 3-6 7-6 6-2 GRIND (comeback) W Wimb 1/64 vs Potapova (1613) 6-2 6-3 DOM L Eastbourne vs Keys (1819) 0-6 1-6 BAGELED W Eastbourne vs Dudeney (1441,Weak) 6-0 6-3 DOM L Nottingham QF vs Navarro (1785) 6-7 2-6 Read: solid dark-horse run but level tops out well below Pegula. Transitive: Keys blew her off court 0-6 1-6; Pegula edged Keys 7-6 7-6. FATIGUE (14d) Pegula: 6 matches, ~458 court-min, b2b 2, last 07-01 Bouzas: 6 matches, ~347 court-min, last 07-01 Court-time diff 111min → slight physical edge to Bouzas (both 2d rest). Not remotely enough to close a class/form gap. NARRATIVE Let-down: none — Pegula LOST the Berlin final (12d ago), already rebounded with two clean Wimbledon wins. No peak-title hangover. Venue: n/a (first Wimbledon meeting context). VERDICT — PASS The only source of the "+15.2% on Bouzas" edge is ELO (70.2%), a historical/surface-agnostic number. ML (91.7%) sits right on the market (92.2%) — model+market consensus on Pegula. Live grass form REINFORCES the favorite rather than validating the dog: Pegula is beating elite players on grass while Bouzas was bageled by a player Pegula outlasted. Backing Bouzas at 12.5 chases a stale-ELO mirage against the qualitative read. No value on Pegula at 1.06 either. Discipline: no bet. ═══════════════════════════════════════════════