TennisEdge's AI bot is backing T. Paul (moneyline) in H. Hurkacz vs T. Paul (Wimbledon on 2026-07-03).
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | H. Hurkacz | T. Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
40.3% | 59.7% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
35.0% | 65.0% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
21.7% | 78.3% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
35.1% | 64.9% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
42.5% | 57.5% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| H. Hurkacz | grass | 1779 | 27–14 | 41 |
| T. Paul | grass | 1815 | 37–18 | 55 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 5, 2026.
T. Paul leads 4–2 over 6 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug. 15, 2026 | Cincinnati | hard | T. Paul | 2 - 1 |
| July 3, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | H. Hurkacz | 3 - 1 |
| May 15, 2025 | Rome | clay | T. Paul | 2 - 0 |
| May 16, 2024 | ATP Rome | clay | T. Paul | 2 - 1 |
| March 13, 2023 | ATP Indian Wells | hard | T. Paul | 2 - 1 |
| L | L. Musetti | 2 - 0 | Nov. 2, 2026 |
| L | H. Rune | 1 - 2 | Oct. 28, 2026 |
| W | Z. Bergs | 2 - 1 | Oct. 27, 2026 |
| L | A. Davidovich Fokina | 1 - 2 | Oct. 13, 2026 |
| W | Y. Zhou | 2 - 1 | Oct. 11, 2026 |
| L | B. Shelton | 2 - 1 | Nov. 6, 2026 |
| W | Q. Halys | 2 - 0 | Nov. 5, 2026 |
| W | D. Merida Aguilar | 2 - 0 | Nov. 4, 2026 |
| W | H. Rune | 2 - 0 | Nov. 3, 2026 |
| L | C. Alcaraz | 0 - 2 | Oct. 30, 2026 |
All July 3, 2026 results & picks →