TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in K. Muchova vs M. Sawangkaew (Wimbledon on 2026-07-03) — the market is efficient, with K. Muchova favoured at 1.09.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | K. Muchova | M. Sawangkaew |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
66.5% | 33.5% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
88.7% | 11.3% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
46.3% | 53.7% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
74.1% | 25.9% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
90.0% | 10.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Muchova | hard | 2060 | 106–43 | 149 |
| M. Sawangkaew | hard | 1718 | 145–79 | 224 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated March 26, 2026.
K. Muchova leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 3, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | K. Muchova | 2 - 0 |
| L | L. Noskova | 1 - 2 | July 11, 2026 |
| W | C. Gauff | 2 - 1 | July 9, 2026 |
| W | N. Osaka | 0 - 2 | July 7, 2026 |
| W | B. Krejcikova | 2 - 1 | July 5, 2026 |
| W | M. Sawangkaew | 2 - 0 | July 3, 2026 |
| L | R. Sramkova | 0 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | T. Preston | 2 - 1 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | E. Jones | 0 - 2 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | N. Hibino | 1 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | E. S. Liang | 0 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
All July 3, 2026 results & picks →
═══════════════════════════════════════════ K. Muchova vs M. Sawangkaew Wimbledon · grass · 1/16-finals · 2026-07-03 ═══════════════════════════════════════════ MODELS ELO → Muchova 66.5% ML → Muchova 88.7% Model → Muchova 74.1% Market→ Muchova 90.0% (1.09 / 9.85) Bot → BET B (Sawangkaew) 2.5u, "edge +16%" Alignment: ML agrees with market (both ~89-90%). Only ELO dissents — and ELO is the metric feeding the "value" pick. FORM (grass, last 6) MUCHOVA: W-W-W(title)-W-W-W. DOM 6-3 6-2 vs Zakharova(1675), DOM 6-3 6-2 vs Zhang(1656) at Wimbledon; won Bad Homburg TITLE 6d ago beating Osaka(1784, F, ret) + Ruse(1856, Elite) 6-4 6-4 + Tauson(1689). Genuine top-tier grass form vs Strong/Elite. SAWANGKAEW: also hot — Birmingham title (5-31), Wimbledon qualifying run + 2 main-draw wins. BUT opposition is Weak/Avg: Parks(1489), Chwalinska(1493), Ito(1531), Day(1445). No win over anyone near Muchova's class; lost to Eala(1768) 6-3 6-2. FATIGUE Muchova: 7 matches/14d, ~393min court, mostly quick DOM wins. Sawangkaew: 5 matches/14d, ~427min court, repeated 3-set grinds. Court-time diff ~34min, heavier grinder = Sawangkaew. Verdict: slight edge Muchova — her wins are cheap, hers aren't. NARRATIVE TITLE: Muchova Bad Homburg 6d ago (grass, beat Osaka). Let-down check: WEAK window but already backed up with two DOM Wimbledon wins → negated, form is live and rising. Sawangkaew's qualifying "Final" 8d ago → expired, no bounce. Venue: Muchova 2-0 at this Wimbledon, both dominant. VERDICT — PASS The +16% "value" on Sawangkaew is an ELO mirage: her rating is inflated by a long win streak over Weak/Avg fields (Birmingham, W100s, quali). Muchova is a genuine top-20 player in elite grass form, dismantling Strong/Elite opponents in straight sets. ML (88.7%) and market (90%) agree and the qualitative read fully validates the favorite. No validated edge on the dog; no price on Muchova at 1.09. Model+market consensus on the correct side = no bet. Fade the bot. ═══════════════════════════════════════════