TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in M. Topo vs H. Gaston (Hamburg on 2026-05-16) — the market is efficient, with H. Gaston favoured at 1.44.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. Topo | H. Gaston |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
47.7% | 52.3% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
48.3% | 51.7% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
64.7% | 35.3% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
53.6% | 46.4% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
35.7% | 64.3% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.
H. Gaston leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 16, 2026 | Hamburg | clay | H. Gaston | 2 - 0 |
| L | D. Recek | 2 - 0 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| W | O. J. Gutierrez | 0 - 2 | Aug. 2, 2026 |
| L | E. Moller | 2 - 0 | July 28, 2026 |
| W | V. Aboian | 2 - 0 | July 27, 2026 |
| W | L. Rossi | 2 - 0 | July 26, 2026 |
| L | D. Chan | 1 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | L. van Assche | 2 - 0 | July 25, 2026 |
| W | T. Torres | 0 - 2 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | T. Droguet | 2 - 0 | July 22, 2026 |
| W | D. Dzumhur | 0 - 0 | July 21, 2026 |
All May 16, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used