TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in M. Sakkari vs E. Rybakina (Rome on 2026-05-08) — the market is efficient, with E. Rybakina favoured at 1.10.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. Sakkari | E. Rybakina |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
32.1% | 67.9% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
15.4% | 84.6% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
30.5% | 69.5% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
26.0% | 74.0% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
13.6% | 86.4% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Sakkari | hard | 1846 | 109–78 | 187 |
| E. Rybakina | hard | 2149 | 174–69 | 243 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 13, 2026.
E. Rybakina leads 5–1 over 6 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 8, 2026 | Rome | clay | E. Rybakina | 2 - 0 |
| July 3, 2025 | Wimbledon | grass | E. Rybakina | 2 - 0 |
| Dec. 30, 2024 | United Cup | hard | E. Rybakina | 2 - 0 |
| March 27, 2024 | WTA Miami | hard | E. Rybakina | 2 - 1 |
| Nov. 1, 2023 | WTA Finals - Cancun | hard | E. Rybakina | 2 - 1 |
| L | B. Krejcikova | 2 - 0 | July 19, 2026 |
| W | A. Korneeva | 2 - 0 | July 18, 2026 |
| W | A. Parks | 0 - 2 | July 17, 2026 |
| W | H. Dart | 0 - 2 | July 15, 2026 |
| W | P. Kudermetova | 0 - 2 | July 13, 2026 |
| L | E. Mertens | 2 - 0 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | C. McNally | 0 - 2 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | L. Boisson | 1 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | A. Eala | 2 - 0 | June 18, 2026 |
| W | T. Maria | 2 - 1 | June 12, 2026 |
All May 8, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used