TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in M. Ristic vs D. Chiesa (Brescia (Italy) - Qualification on 2026-06-16) — the market is efficient, with M. Ristic favoured at 1.72.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. Ristic | D. Chiesa |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
50.1% | 49.9% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
49.6% | 50.4% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
41.0% | 59.0% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
52.7% | 47.3% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
53.8% | 46.2% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 31, 2026.
M. Ristic leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 16, 2026 | Brescia (Italy) - Qualification | clay | M. Ristic | 2 - 1 |
| L | L. Samson | 2 - 1 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | Y. Kotliar | 1 - 2 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | D. Semenistaja | 2 - 0 | July 28, 2026 |
| W | N. Brancaccio | 0 - 2 | July 25, 2026 |
| W | V. Turini | 2 - 0 | July 24, 2026 |
| L | A. Prisacariu | 0 - 2 | July 26, 2026 |
| L | Y. Kabbaj | 2 - 0 | July 20, 2026 |
| L | L. Bronzetti | 1 - 2 | July 17, 2026 |
| W | L. Radivojevic | 0 - 2 | July 15, 2026 |
| W | L. Gjorcheska | 1 - 2 | July 13, 2026 |
All June 16, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used