TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in D. Astakhova vs N. Basiletti (Brescia (Italy) - Qualification on 2026-06-16) — the market is efficient, with D. Astakhova favoured at 1.66.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | D. Astakhova | N. Basiletti |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
70.8% | 29.2% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
70.2% | 29.8% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
48.6% | 51.4% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
60.3% | 39.7% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
55.9% | 44.1% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Astakhova | clay | 1598 | 104–57 | 161 |
| N. Basiletti | clay | 1490 | 32–35 | 67 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 28, 2026.
D. Astakhova leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 16, 2026 | Brescia (Italy) - Qualification | clay | D. Astakhova | 2 - 1 |
| L | B. Cengiz | 2 - 0 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | F. Jones | 2 - 0 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | N. Noha Akugue | 1 - 2 | July 15, 2026 |
| W | K. Rinaldo Persson | 0 - 2 | July 13, 2026 |
| L | D. Jakupovic | 2 - 0 | July 9, 2026 |
| W | M. Weckerle | 0 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | F. Ferro | 0 - 2 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | E. V. Eigelsbach | 0 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | M. Hodzic | 2 - 1 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | R. Serban | 2 - 0 | July 21, 2026 |
All June 16, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used