TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in J. Ortenzi vs F. Pace (Brescia (Italy) - Qualification on 2026-06-16) — the market is efficient, with J. Ortenzi favoured at 1.30.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | J. Ortenzi | F. Pace |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
78.1% | 21.9% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
62.5% | 37.5% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
46.8% | 53.2% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
74.1% | 25.9% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
72.3% | 27.7% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Ortenzi | clay | 1581 | 165–76 | 241 |
| F. Pace | clay | 1353 | 51–43 | 94 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated June 18, 2026.
J. Ortenzi leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 16, 2026 | Brescia (Italy) - Qualification | clay | J. Ortenzi | 2 - 0 |
| L | K. Sebov | 2 - 1 | June 23, 2026 |
| L | E. Yaneva | 0 - 2 | June 18, 2026 |
| W | F. Pace | 2 - 0 | June 16, 2026 |
| L | K. Quevedo | 2 - 0 | June 8, 2026 |
| W | V. Turini | 2 - 1 | June 7, 2026 |
| L | J. Lim | 2 - 0 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | M. Barthel | Walk Over | July 30, 2026 |
| W | T. Pieri | 2 - 0 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | M. Trevisan | 0 - 2 | July 22, 2026 |
| W | B. Ricci | 2 - 0 | July 21, 2026 |
All June 16, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used