TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in M. Keys vs D. Shnaider (French Open on 2026-06-01) — the market is efficient, with M. Keys favoured at 1.61.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. Keys | D. Shnaider |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
57.9% | 42.1% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
63.7% | 36.3% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
79.0% | 21.0% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
66.9% | 33.1% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
58.8% | 41.2% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Keys | hard | 1898 | 91–56 | 147 |
| D. Shnaider | hard | 1841 | 98–62 | 160 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 27, 2026.
M. Keys leads 3–1 over 4 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 1, 2026 | French Open | clay | D. Shnaider | 2 - 1 |
| Jan. 8, 2026 | WTA Brisbane | hard | M. Keys | 2 - 1 |
| June 13, 2025 | London | grass | M. Keys | 2 - 1 |
| March 21, 2024 | WTA Miami | hard | M. Keys | 2 - 0 |
| L | L. Samsonova | 2 - 1 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | L. Noskova | 0 - 2 | July 6, 2026 |
| W | A. Anisimova | 1 - 2 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | K. Swan | 0 - 2 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | K. Day | 1 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | J. Pegula | 2 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | L. Samsonova | 2 - 0 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | A. Potapova | 2 - 0 | July 30, 2026 |
| L | L. Samsonova | 1 - 2 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | E. Lys | 2 - 0 | June 30, 2026 |
All June 1, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used