TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in F. Tiafoe vs M. Arnaldi (French Open on 2026-06-01) — the market is efficient, with F. Tiafoe favoured at 1.85.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | F. Tiafoe | M. Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
42.0% | 58.0% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
31.6% | 68.4% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
63.6% | 36.4% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
45.8% | 54.2% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
52.7% | 47.3% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Tiafoe | hard | 1866 | 126–85 | 211 |
| M. Arnaldi | clay | 1861 | 133–70 | 203 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 28, 2026.
M. Arnaldi leads 2–1 over 3 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 1, 2026 | French Open | clay | M. Arnaldi | 3 - 2 |
| April 30, 2025 | Madrid | clay | M. Arnaldi | 2 - 0 |
| July 1, 2024 | ATP Wimbledon | grass | F. Tiafoe | 3 - 2 |
| L | T. Atmane | 1 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | A. Bublik | 2 - 3 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | J. Choinski | 3 - 1 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | T. Atmane | 3 - 1 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | T. Fritz | 0 - 2 | June 21, 2026 |
| L | L. Musetti | 0 - 1 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | D. Dzumhur | 2 - 1 | July 16, 2026 |
| W | F. A. Gomez | 1 - 2 | July 15, 2026 |
| L | Q. Halys | 1 - 3 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | G. Hussey | 0 - 2 | June 23, 2026 |
All June 1, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used