TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in A. Sabalenka vs N. Osaka (French Open on 2026-06-01) — the market is efficient, with A. Sabalenka favoured at 1.20.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | A. Sabalenka | N. Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
66.7% | 33.3% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
86.4% | 13.6% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
66.5% | 33.5% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
73.2% | 26.8% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
78.9% | 21.1% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Sabalenka | hard | 2224 | 196–58 | 254 |
| N. Osaka | hard | 1920 | 80–36 | 116 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated March 28, 2026.
A. Sabalenka leads 5–1 over 6 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 5, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | N. Osaka | 2 - 0 |
| June 1, 2026 | French Open | clay | A. Sabalenka | 2 - 0 |
| April 27, 2026 | Madrid | clay | A. Sabalenka | 2 - 1 |
| March 10, 2026 | WTA Indian Wells | hard | A. Sabalenka | 2 - 0 |
| Dec. 9, 2025 | Others matches | — | A. Sabalenka | 2 - 0 |
| L | N. Osaka | 0 - 2 | July 5, 2026 |
| W | J. Ostapenko | 2 - 0 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | M. Kessler | 2 - 0 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | T. Kostovic | 2 - 0 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | J. Pegula | 1 - 2 | June 20, 2026 |
| L | A. Eala | 0 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | E. Cocciaretto | 1 - 2 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | A. Krueger | 0 - 1 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | K. Muchova | 0 - 2 | July 7, 2026 |
| W | A. Sabalenka | 0 - 2 | July 5, 2026 |
All June 1, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used