TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in M. Kessler vs Y. Putintseva (Paris on 2026-05-11) — the market is efficient, with Y. Putintseva favoured at 1.67.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. Kessler | Y. Putintseva |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
36.5% | 63.5% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
21.6% | 78.4% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
42.6% | 57.4% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
33.6% | 66.4% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
43.7% | 56.3% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Kessler | hard | 1792 | 101–54 | 155 |
| Y. Putintseva | hard | 1750 | 113–90 | 203 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.
Y. Putintseva leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 11, 2026 | Paris | clay | Y. Putintseva | 2 - 0 |
| Dec. 31, 2024 | Brisbane | hard | Y. Putintseva | 2 - 0 |
| W | C. Brace | 2 - 0 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | R. Zarazua | 2 - 0 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | A. Sabalenka | 2 - 0 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | O. Oliynykova | 0 - 2 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | M. Keys | 0 - 2 | June 25, 2026 |
| L | S. Zhang | 0 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | E. Avanesyan | 2 - 1 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | M. Barthel | 0 - 2 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | M. Sherif | 1 - 2 | July 17, 2026 |
| W | A. Charaeva | 2 - 0 | July 15, 2026 |
All May 11, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used