TennisEdge's AI bot is backing M. Fucsovics (moneyline) in M. Fucsovics vs L. Tien (Wimbledon on 2026-07-01).
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. Fucsovics | L. Tien |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
62.9% | 37.1% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
41.8% | 58.2% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
49.7% | 50.3% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
44.9% | 55.1% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
31.0% | 69.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Fucsovics | hard | 1755 | 95–76 | 171 |
| L. Tien | hard | 1905 | 155–56 | 211 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 4, 2026.
M. Fucsovics leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 1, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | M. Fucsovics | 3 - 1 |
| L | C. Moutet | 0 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | A. Davidovich Fokina | 3 - 0 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | L. Tien | 3 - 1 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | L. van Assche | 0 - 1 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | B. Nakashima | 2 - 0 | June 16, 2026 |
| L | A. Mannarino | 2 - 0 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | M. Fucsovics | 3 - 1 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | D. Svrcina | 1 - 3 | June 29, 2026 |
| W | L. Darderi | 0 - 2 | June 26, 2026 |
| L | G. Mpetshi Perricard | 1 - 2 | June 23, 2026 |
All July 1, 2026 results & picks →
M. Fucsovics (A) vs L. Tien (B) — Wimbledon R128, grass MODELS: ELO 62.9% A | ML 41.8% A | blend 44.9% A | consensus 50.9% A. Market: A 2.96 (31% imp) / B 1.33 (69% imp). Devig A 31%. Both ELO (+0.32) and ML (+0.11) price A ABOVE the 31% market line — mutual-agreement value on the underdog, edge +13.9%. FORM A (grass): W vs van Assche (1486, ret. while up 6-3 4-0, DOM-ish) | L Nakashima (1745) 3-6 3-6 | L Auger-Aliassime (1716) 3-6 4-6 | W Hurkacz (1826, Strong/Elite) 3-6 7-6 7-6 GRIND. Real quality grass scalp (Hurkacz) but two clean losses to strong grass players. Grass-capable veteran. FORM B (grass + recent): W Svrcina (1444) 4-set | exh split | L Auger-Aliassime (1734) 7-6 5-7 7-6 close | W Schoenhaus (1627). Pedigree is CLAY: Geneva FINAL (lost 05-23 to Navone), beat Bublik x2, FO R16. Grass is the weaker surface for the young American. FATIGUE: A — 2 matches/14d, 117 court-min, rested. B — 4 matches/14d, 481 court-min, 4-setter 2d ago atop deep clay swing. Court-time diff >360min → heavy disadvantage to B. Strong fatigue edge to A. NARRATIVE: No active let-down (Tien's Geneva final >7d ago). No title recency in play. Venue neutral. VERDICT: Market makes Tien a 69% favorite despite grass not being his best surface AND a 481-min fatigue load, while Fucsovics owns a grass GRIND win over Hurkacz. Both models say A is underpriced at 31%; surface + fatigue qualitatively validate the edge. BET A 2.96, sized moderate (1.5u) — ML still leans Tien and Fucsovics's own grass form is patchy, so not a max-conviction spot.