TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in L. Musetti vs G. Mpetshi Perricard (Rome on 2026-05-08) — the market is efficient, with L. Musetti favoured at 1.16.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | L. Musetti | G. Mpetshi Perricard |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
75.4% | 24.6% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
77.3% | 22.7% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
76.4% | 23.6% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
81.2% | 18.8% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Musetti | hard | 1907 | 96–84 | 180 |
| G. Mpetshi Perricard | hard | 1695 | 83–72 | 155 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 31, 2026.
L. Musetti leads 5–1 over 6 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 8, 2026 | Rome | clay | L. Musetti | 2 - 0 |
| Oct. 17, 2025 | Brussels | hard | G. Mpetshi Perricard | 2 - 0 |
| Sept. 26, 2025 | Beijing | hard | L. Musetti | 2 - 1 |
| Aug. 26, 2025 | US Open | hard | L. Musetti | 3 - 1 |
| July 8, 2024 | ATP Wimbledon | grass | L. Musetti | 3 - 1 |
| L | R. Jodar | 2 - 1 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | A. Vukic | 1 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | M. Arnaldi | 0 - 1 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | C. Ruud | 0 - 2 | May 12, 2026 |
| W | F. Cerundolo | 2 - 0 | May 10, 2026 |
| L | Y. Hanfmann | 3 - 1 | June 30, 2026 |
| W | R. Bautista-Agut | 1 - 2 | June 26, 2026 |
| W | L. Tien | 1 - 2 | June 23, 2026 |
| L | C. Moutet | 1 - 2 | June 16, 2026 |
| W | A. Kovacevic | 0 - 2 | June 14, 2026 |
All May 8, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used