TennisEdge's AI bot is backing N. Bartunkova (moneyline) in K. Siniakova vs N. Bartunkova (Wimbledon on 2026-07-01).
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | K. Siniakova | N. Bartunkova |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
47.7% | 52.3% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
49.5% | 50.5% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
43.6% | 56.4% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
50.1% | 49.9% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
57.7% | 42.3% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Siniakova | hard | 1822 | 101–77 | 178 |
| N. Bartunkova | clay | 1676 | 72–40 | 112 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated March 18, 2026.
N. Bartunkova leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 1, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | N. Bartunkova | 2 - 0 |
| L | N. Bartunkova | 0 - 2 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | Q. Zheng | 2 - 0 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | L. Samsonova | 2 - 0 | June 21, 2026 |
| L | J. Pegula | 2 - 0 | June 17, 2026 |
| W | R. Masarova | 2 - 0 | June 16, 2026 |
| W | B. Andreescu | 2 - 0 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | L. Tararudee | 1 - 2 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | Y. Yuan | 2 - 1 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | B. Krejcikova | 0 - 2 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | K. Siniakova | 0 - 2 | July 1, 2026 |
All July 1, 2026 results & picks →
MATCH: K. Siniakova vs N. Bartunkova - Wimbledon 1/32 (grass) MODELS: ELO p(A)=0.477 | ML p(A)=0.495 | blended p(A)=0.501 | Market implied p(A)=0.577 (1.65/2.25). All three models cluster at a coin-flip while the market firmly backs Siniakova -> models price Bartunkova ~7.6% richer than market (devig edge on B). FORM - SINIAKOVA (A, grass): W vs Q.Zheng (Strong 1666) 6-4 6-4 at Wimbledon yest; WON Berlin title 15d ago (Final 6-4 6-2 vs Zhu 1556, SF 6-4 6-2 vs Yuan 1496, 6-2 6-4 vs Masarova) -> title field was WEAK/AVG. Against quality grass she LOST: Pegula 2-6 4-6, Samsonova 3-6 5-7. Grass title built on soft draw. FORM - BARTUNKOVA (B, grass): W vs Stearns (Weak 1470) 6-4 3-6 7-5 yest (gritty 3-set vs lesser foe). Berlin: beat Mertens (Strong 1774) 6-1 6-4 DOM, beat Shnaider (1719) in 3, took a set off Sabalenka (Elite 1913) 2-6 7-6 4-6 in QF. Birmingham Final run (grass). Her grass wins came vs MUCH tougher opposition than Siniakova's title run. FATIGUE: A court-time 247min/4 matches-14d; B 254min/3 matches-14d. Both played yesterday. Roughly equal - no edge. NARRATIVE: Siniakova TITLE: Berlin 15d ago (grass) but beyond let-down window and vs soft field. Bartunkova has lost multiple finals (Madrid, Rome, Birmingham) -> closing-out concern, and grinds 3-setters even vs weak players (consistency/fatigue risk). VERDICT: ELO clearly + ML marginally disagree with market, and the qualitative read validates it: Bartunkova has beaten/competed with materially stronger grass opposition (Mertens DOM, Shnaider, set off Sabalenka) than Siniakova's weak-field title. Siniakova @1.65 looks like a doubles-reputation overlay. Bartunkova @2.25 (break-even 44.4%) carries value at a true ~50%. BET B, sized below the bot's 2.4u given B's final-losing pattern and grind-heavy wins.