TennisEdge's AI bot is backing B. Krejcikova (moneyline) in K. Muchova vs B. Krejcikova (Wimbledon on 2026-07-05).
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | K. Muchova | B. Krejcikova |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
46.1% | 53.9% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
85.7% | 14.3% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
55.0% | 45.0% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
46.1% | 53.9% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
63.6% | 36.4% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Muchova | hard | 2060 | 106–43 | 149 |
| B. Krejcikova | hard | 1893 | 82–51 | 133 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated March 26, 2026.
K. Muchova leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 5, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | K. Muchova | 2 - 1 |
| L | L. Noskova | 1 - 2 | July 11, 2026 |
| W | C. Gauff | 2 - 1 | July 9, 2026 |
| W | N. Osaka | 0 - 2 | July 7, 2026 |
| W | B. Krejcikova | 2 - 1 | July 5, 2026 |
| W | M. Sawangkaew | 2 - 0 | July 3, 2026 |
| L | L. Tagger | 2 - 1 | July 25, 2026 |
| W | D. Salkova | 0 - 2 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | L. Havlickova | 0 - 2 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | L. Fruhvirtova | 0 - 2 | July 21, 2026 |
| W | M. Sakkari | 2 - 0 | July 19, 2026 |
All July 5, 2026 results & picks →
═══ K. Muchova vs B. Krejcikova — Wimbledon 1/8-finals (grass) ═══ MODELS ELO prob A ........ 0.461 (favors Krejcikova — DISAGREES with market) ML prob A ......... 0.857 (strongly favors Muchova) serve/return A .... 0.550 Ensemble A ........ 0.623 (confidence LOW 0.25) Market ............ A 1.50 (imp 63.6%) | B 2.62 (imp 36.4%) Value pick ........ B (+17.5% ELO edge) Bot ............... PASS — models do not mutually agree FORM — MUCHOVA (A) [red-hot grass] 07-03 W Sawangkaew (1706 Str) 6-2 7-6 ... GRIND 07-01 W Zhang (1656 Str) 6-3 6-2 ........ DOM 06-29 W Zakharova (1675 Str) 6-3 6-2 .... DOM 06-27 W Osaka (1784 Str) 6-1 1-0 ret .... TITLE (Bad Homburg Final, 8d) 06-26 W Ruse (1856 ELITE) 6-4 6-4 ....... DOM vs Elite 06-25 W Tauson (1689 Str) 1-6 6-2 6-4 ... GRIND 06-24 W Begu (1652 Str) 6-1 6-1 ......... DOM -> Bad Homburg champion + 3 straight-set Wimbledon wins. Best grass form in draw. FORM — KREJCIKOVA (B) [fresh, 2024 W champ] 07-03 W Bartunkova (1813 Str) 6-3 7-5 ... DOM vs Strong 07-01 W Andreeva (1683 Str) 4-6 7-5 6-4 . GRIND 06-29 W Klugman (1512 Wk) 6-1 6-4 ....... DOM 06-23 L Birrell (1591 Avg) 3-6 6-7 ...... loss (Eastbourne) 06-14 L Montgomery — Walk Over (H'bosch Final, withdrew) 06-13 W Linette (1699 Str) 6-3 7-6 ...... GRIND -> Quality DOM over Bartunkova last round; form spottier but slam pedigree. FATIGUE A Muchova .... 7 matches/14d | 389 court-min | 3 back-to-back days | last 07-03 (2d) B Krejcikova . 4 matches/14d | 295 court-min | 0 back-to-back | last 07-03 (2d) Court-time diff 94 min (>60) -> heavier side MUCHOVA disadvantaged. Edge: Krejcikova materially fresher. NARRATIVE Let-down: Muchova won a title 8d ago (outside 7d window) but has won 3 since — no active letdown, in rhythm. Venue: neither has Wimbledon W-L history in window (first appearances this event). Krejcikova = former Wimbledon champion, grass pedigree. VERDICT — BET B (Krejcikova) @2.62, 1.0u ELO disagrees with market (46% vs 64%) and the qualitative read partly validates it: Muchova is the hotter, better player but is deep into a heavy schedule (7 matches, 389 min, 3 consecutive match days) and priced at a razor-thin 1.50. Krejcikova is fresh, a proven Wimbledon champion, and just posted a DOM win over a Strong opponent. At 2.62 the fatigue + freshness + pedigree make the 17.5% ELO value real. Sized down to 1.0u because ML (0.857) strongly contradicts and Muchova has been winning through the fatigue — this is a value underdog play, not a winner call. Predicted match winner still Muchova.