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R. Safiullin vs N. Djokovic — Prediction & Analysis

Wimbledon · ATP Wimbledon - 1/8-finals · July 5, 2026 · 12:00 UTC

TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in R. Safiullin vs N. Djokovic (Wimbledon on 2026-07-05) — the market is efficient, with N. Djokovic favoured at 1.16.

Surface grass Odds R. Safiullin 5.00 · N. Djokovic 1.16

Verdict: no bet

The model found no value at current prices — the market has this one priced about right. That verdict is part of the public record too.
Profiles: R. Safiullin · N. Djokovic · head-to-head record · Wimbledon

Model probabilities

Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.

Method R. Safiullin N. Djokovic
Elo
ratings-based, surface-weighted
 14.3% 85.7%
Machine learning
29-feature gradient-boosted model
 30.6% 69.4%
Serve / return
point-by-point simulation
 54.9% 45.1%
Blend
what the bot actually prices off
 14.3% 85.7%
Market implied
de-vigged from the opening odds
 18.8% 81.2%

We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?

Elo ratings

PlayerSurfaceEloRecordMatches
R. Safiullin hard1715 107–81188
N. Djokovic hard2085 127–26153

Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated March 4, 2026.

Head to head

N. Djokovic leads 4–0 over 4 meetings. Full record.

DateEventSurfaceWinnerScore
July 5, 2026WimbledongrassN. Djokovic3 - 1
Oct. 9, 2024ATP ShanghaihardN. Djokovic2 - 0
April 9, 2024ATP Monte CarloclayN. Djokovic2 - 0
Oct. 1, 2022Tel AvivhardN. Djokovic2 - 0

Recent form

R. Safiullin

L N. Djokovic 1 - 3 July 5, 2026
W J. Fonseca 3 - 0 July 3, 2026
W B. Van De Zandschulp 3 - 2 July 1, 2026
W A. Rublev 2 - 3 June 29, 2026
W J. Kym 3 - 2 June 25, 2026

N. Djokovic

L J. Sinner 3 - 0 July 10, 2026
W F. Auger-Aliassime 2 - 3 July 7, 2026
W R. Safiullin 1 - 3 July 5, 2026
W A. Rinderknech 1 - 3 July 3, 2026
W S. Tsitsipas 0 - 3 July 1, 2026

All July 5, 2026 results & picks →

Full analysis

═══ R. Safiullin vs N. Djokovic — Wimbledon 1/8-finals (grass) ═══

MODELS
  ELO   Djokovic 85.7%  (Safiullin 14.3%)
  ML    Djokovic 69.4%  (Safiullin 30.6%)  ← disagrees, flags dog value
  Serve/Return  Safiullin 54.9%  (coin-flip)
  Market  Djokovic 81.2% @1.16 / Safiullin 18.8% @5.00
  value_pick B (Djokovic) edge +4.5% on ELO only

FORM
  Safiullin (grass, hot): DOM d.Fonseca 6-3 6-3 6-3 (Strong 1657);
    GRIND d.Van de Zandschulp 5s (1585); GRIND d.Rublev 5s (Strong 1744).
    Genuine run, but two five-setters to get here.
  Djokovic (grass, peak): DOM d.Tsitsipas 6-3 6-4 6-2 (Strong 1685);
    d.Rinderknech 4s; d.Wu 4s. Class of the draw, clean level.

FATIGUE  (14d)
  Safiullin  6 matches / 18 sets / 917 min court-time (avg 152) — back-to-back
  Djokovic   4 matches / 12 sets / 562 min court-time (avg 140)
  Diff 355 min (>60) → heavy edge DJOKOVIC. Safiullin cooked by 5-set grinds.

NARRATIVE
  Let-down: none (last Final won 10d ago, matches since).
  Venue: both deep at Wimbledon; Djokovic momentum stronger (demolished Tsitsipas).
  Title recency: n/a to edge.

VERDICT — PASS
  ML (69.4%) undercuts market (81.2%) and hints Safiullin @5.00 is a live dog.
  But the fatigue read kills that edge: Safiullin needs a physical grind vs peak
  Djokovic with nothing left in the tank after back-to-back 5-setters.
  ELO + market both align heavy on Djokovic; the lone ML disagreement is not
  validated by the qualitative read. Djokovic @1.16 is far too short for a 4.5%
  ELO-only edge that ML contradicts. No clean edge either side → PASS.

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