TennisEdge's AI bot is backing B. Bencic (moneyline) in B. Bencic vs C. Gauff (Wimbledon on 2026-07-05).
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | B. Bencic | C. Gauff |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
69.1% | 30.9% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
45.2% | 54.8% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
52.3% | 47.7% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
43.0% | 57.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated March 25, 2026.
C. Gauff leads 6–1 over 7 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 5, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | C. Gauff | 2 - 1 |
| March 25, 2026 | Miami | hard | C. Gauff | 2 - 1 |
| Sept. 30, 2025 | Beijing | hard | C. Gauff | 2 - 1 |
| April 28, 2025 | Madrid | clay | C. Gauff | 2 - 0 |
| March 12, 2025 | Indian Wells | hard | B. Bencic | 2 - 1 |
| L | C. Gauff | 1 - 2 | July 5, 2026 |
| W | A. Kalinskaya | 2 - 1 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | Xin. Wang | 2 - 0 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | M. Stojsavljevic | 2 - 0 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | E. Svitolina | 2 - 1 | May 31, 2026 |
All July 5, 2026 results & picks →
═══ B. Bencic vs C. Gauff — Wimbledon 1/8-finals (grass) ═══ MODELS ELO 0.691 A (strong Bencic lean) ML 0.452 A (market-anchored, sides Gauff) Blend 0.523 A Market 0.430 A (Bencic 2.20 / Gauff 1.66) Value +9.3% edge on A (Bencic) FORM — BENCIC (A): 3-0 at Wimbledon W Kalinskaya (1723 Strong) 6-4 4-6 7-6 GRIND (Rome revenge) W Xin Wang (1827 Strong) 7-5 6-0 DOM vs Strong <-- real edge W Stojsavlj. (1412 Weak) 6-2 6-1 DOM vs Weak Former Olympic champ; grass is a strong relative surface. FORM — GAUFF (B): 3-0 but grinding W Liu (1688 Strong) 3-6 7-6 2-6* GRIND / tiebreak escape W Sierra (1657 Avg) 3-6 6-3 7-6 GRIND / tiebreak escape W Korpat.(1332 Weak) 6-2 6-1 DOM vs Weak Lost grass warmup (Berlin) to Badosa. Marquee results (Rome final, wins over 1900+ elites) are ALL clay — grass her weaker surface. FATIGUE Bencic 3 matches/14d, ~212 min court time Gauff 3 matches/14d, ~244 min court time (two 3-set grinds) Both 2 days rest. Slight edge Bencic (less wear) — within noise. NARRATIVE Let-down: none live (Gauff's last Final = Rome ~50d ago, lost). No title recency for either. VERDICT — BET A (Bencic) 2.0u @ 2.20 ELO (+26pt vs market) is validated by the tape: Bencic DOM'd a Strong opponent on grass while Gauff is scraping 3-set tiebreaks on her worst surface. Market prices Gauff on ranking/reputation; the grass form gap is the edge. ML sides with market but it is market-anchored by design. Sized down from bot's 2.5u for Gauff's proven clutch (wins ugly).