TennisEdge's AI bot is backing F. Auger-Aliassime (moneyline) in F. Auger-Aliassime vs A. Davidovich Fokina (Wimbledon on 2026-07-05).
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | F. Auger-Aliassime | A. Davidovich Fokina |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
42.9% | 57.1% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
72.8% | 27.2% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
58.2% | 41.8% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
42.9% | 57.1% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
63.6% | 36.4% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Auger-Aliassime | hard | 1996 | 169–85 | 254 |
| A. Davidovich Fokina | hard | 1851 | 107–90 | 197 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated April 4, 2026.
F. Auger-Aliassime leads 5–1 over 6 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 5, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | F. Auger-Aliassime | 3 - 2 |
| Jan. 15, 2025 | Australian Open | hard | A. Davidovich Fokina | 3 - 2 |
| June 29, 2023 | Boodles Challenge (United Kingdom), Grass | — | F. Auger-Aliassime | 2 - 0 |
| Feb. 23, 2023 | Doha | hard | F. Auger-Aliassime | 2 - 0 |
| May 10, 2022 | Rome | clay | F. Auger-Aliassime | 2 - 1 |
| L | N. Djokovic | 2 - 3 | July 7, 2026 |
| W | A. Davidovich Fokina | 3 - 2 | July 5, 2026 |
| W | M. Zheng | 3 - 0 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | D. Prizmic | 3 - 0 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | A. Shevchenko | 3 - 0 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | A. Molcan | 2 - 1 | July 16, 2026 |
| W | M. Trungelliti | 0 - 2 | July 15, 2026 |
| L | F. Auger-Aliassime | 3 - 2 | July 5, 2026 |
| W | M. Fucsovics | 3 - 0 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | F. Marozsan | 3 - 0 | July 1, 2026 |
All July 5, 2026 results & picks →
═══════════════════════════════════════════════ F. Auger-Aliassime vs A. Davidovich Fokina Wimbledon · grass · 1/8-finals · 2026-07-05 ═══════════════════════════════════════════════ MODELS Market: A 1.50 (63.6%) | B 2.62 (36.4%) ELO: A 42.9% → favors B (value_pick B, edge +20.7%) ML: A 72.8% → favors A Serve/Rtn:A 58.2% → favors A Ensemble: A 42.9% (defaults to ELO; no mutual agreement) → Models SPLIT. ELO dissents toward B; ML + serve/return + market all back A. FORM — FAA (fresh, dominant) 07-03 W Zheng (1750 Strong) 7-6 6-2 6-1 GRIND→cruise 07-01 W Prizmic (1476 Weak) 7-6 6-3 7-5 GRIND 06-29 W Shevchenko (1346 Weak)6-3 6-1 6-4 DOM Wimbledon 3-0, straight sets throughout, quality scalp vs Zheng (Strong). FORM — ADF (deep run, grinding) 07-03 W Fucsovics (1735 Strong)7-6 6-2 6-3 GRIND 07-01 W Marozsan (1597 Avg) 6-3 6-0 6-3 DOM 06-29 W Cerundolo (1445 Weak) 6-4 6-4 7-6 GRIND Pre-SW19: WON Mallorca title (grass) 06-27, beat Dimitrov (1788) en route. FATIGUE (decisive) FAA: 3 matches/14d · 366 court-min · b2b 0 · last 07-03 ADF: 7 matches/14d · 721 court-min · b2b 3 · 21 sets · last 07-03 |court-time diff| = 355min (>60) → ADF heavily disadvantaged. ADF has played nearly 2x the tennis (title run + 3 SW19 rounds). NARRATIVE Let-down: Mallorca title 8d ago, 3 matches since → not a fresh let-down, WEAK. Title recency: ADF's elevated ELO is built ON the grind that now fatigues him. Venue: neutral. VERDICT — BET A (F. Auger-Aliassime) @1.50 · 1.0u ELO's B-value (+20.7%) is a FATIGUE TRAP: ADF's rating reflects a punishing Mallorca-title-into-Wimbledon run (721 court-min) that leaves him gassed vs a fresher, higher-ceiling grass server in dominant form. ML (72.8%), serve/return (58.2%) and market all agree on FAA; qualitative read validates them, kills the ELO edge. True FAA ~70% vs implied 63.6% → thin but real +EV at a short price. Sized 1.0u to respect the skinny 1.50 line. ═══════════════════════════════════════════════