F. Auger-Aliassime vs A. Davidovich Fokina — Prediction & Analysis

Wimbledon · ATP Wimbledon - 1/8-finals · July 5, 2026 · 12:00 UTC

TennisEdge's AI bot is backing F. Auger-Aliassime (moneyline) in F. Auger-Aliassime vs A. Davidovich Fokina (Wimbledon on 2026-07-05).

Surface grass Odds F. Auger-Aliassime 1.50 · A. Davidovich Fokina 2.62

Bot bet

F. Auger-Aliassime (moneyline) · 1.0u

Pending — published before the match, graded in public.

Read the reasoning on the bet sheet →

Profiles: F. Auger-Aliassime · A. Davidovich Fokina · head-to-head record · Wimbledon

Model probabilities

Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.

Method	F. Auger-Aliassime	A. Davidovich Fokina
Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted	42.9%	57.1%
Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model	72.8%	27.2%
Serve / return point-by-point simulation	58.2%	41.8%
Blend what the bot actually prices off	42.9%	57.1%
Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds	63.6%	36.4%

We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?

Elo ratings

Player	Surface	Elo	Record	Matches
F. Auger-Aliassime	grass	1768	30–20	50
A. Davidovich Fokina	grass	1796	22–15	37

Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 7, 2026.

Head to head

F. Auger-Aliassime leads 5–1 over 6 meetings. Full record.

Date	Event	Surface	Winner	Score
July 5, 2026	Wimbledon	grass	F. Auger-Aliassime	3 - 2
Jan. 15, 2025	Australian Open	hard	A. Davidovich Fokina	3 - 2
June 29, 2023	Boodles Challenge (United Kingdom), Grass	—	F. Auger-Aliassime	2 - 0
Feb. 23, 2023	Doha	hard	F. Auger-Aliassime	2 - 0
May 10, 2022	Rome	clay	F. Auger-Aliassime	2 - 1

Recent form