TennisEdge's AI bot is backing I. Jovic (moneyline) in J. Pegula vs I. Jovic (Wimbledon on 2026-07-05).
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | J. Pegula | I. Jovic |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
46.6% | 53.4% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
69.3% | 30.7% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
56.4% | 43.6% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
46.6% | 53.4% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
63.6% | 36.4% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.
J. Pegula leads 3–0 over 3 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 5, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | J. Pegula | 2 - 1 |
| April 4, 2026 | Charleston | clay | J. Pegula | 2 - 1 |
| Feb. 18, 2026 | WTA Dubai | hard | J. Pegula | 2 - 0 |
| L | A. Eala | 1 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| W | D. Shnaider | 2 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | A. Kalinskaya | 2 - 0 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | M. Frech | 2 - 1 | July 30, 2026 |
| L | C. Gauff | 1 - 2 | July 7, 2026 |
| L | J. Pegula | 2 - 1 | July 5, 2026 |
| W | E. Alexandrova | 1 - 2 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | T. Maria | 0 - 2 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | J. Cristian | 0 - 2 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | E. Raducanu | 2 - 0 | June 13, 2026 |
All July 5, 2026 results & picks →
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J. Pegula (A) vs I. Jovic (B) — Wimbledon 1/8-finals (grass)
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MODELS
ELO prob_A 0.466 → leans Jovic (coin-flip, slight B)
ML prob_A 0.693 → strong Pegula
Serve prob_A 0.564 → slight Pegula
Model prob_A 0.466 (ensemble) | conf LOW 0.15
MARKET Pegula 1.50 (imp 63.6%) | Jovic 2.62 (imp 36.4%)
value_pick B, edge +0.17 — models DO NOT mutually agree
→ ELO meaningfully disagrees with market (Jovic value); ML agrees with market.
FORM (grass, last ~90d)
PEGULA 6-1 on grass — elite quality:
W Bouzas 6-1 6-3 (1734) DOM
W Sorribes 7-6 6-1 (1541) GRIND
W Vidmanova 7-5 6-3 (1622) GRIND
Berlin: beat Sabalenka 6-4 6-7 6-0 (1931 ELITE), Keys 7-6 7-6 (1836 GRIND),
Siniakova 6-2 6-4 (1799 DOM) → LOST Final to Noskova 4-6 6-4 3-6 (1853)
Verdict: deeper, higher-quality grass wins. Clearly the more proven player.
JOVIC 6-1 on grass — hot young riser:
W Alexandrova 6-3 3-6 6-4 (1780) GRIND
W Maria 6-1 6-2 (1814) DOM
W Cristian 7-6 6-0 (1466) GRIND
London: beat Anisimova 6-2 3-6 6-3 (1898 ELITE), Eala 6-2 6-2 (1864) DOM,
Ruzic 6-3 6-4 → LOST SF to Raducanu 2-6 2-6 (1800)
Verdict: legit grass form, wins over Elite/Strong, but a rung below Pegula.
FATIGUE (KEY SIGNAL)
PEGULA 5 matches/14d, 368 court-min, back-to-back=1, last 2026-07-03 (2d)
JOVIC 3 matches/14d, 199 court-min, back-to-back=0, last 2026-07-03 (2d)
Court-time diff 169min (>60) → Pegula meaningfully heavier-legged.
Fresh underdog vs grinding favorite = classic value tilt toward B.
NARRATIVE
Let-down: Pegula lost Berlin Final 14d ago → stale, no active let-down (3 Wimbledon
wins since). NOTE only.
Title recency: none (Pegula runner-up Berlin).
Venue: first meeting context; both first deep Wimbledon week — no venue edge.
VERDICT — BET B (Jovic) @2.62, 1.0u
Market prices Pegula at 63.6% off her class; ELO calls it a coin-flip and Jovic's
fatigue + fresh, in-form grass run validate the underdog read. Pegula is the more
likely single-match winner (predicted winner), but at plus-money Jovic is underpriced.
Reduced stake (1.0u) because ML strongly opposes and confidence is LOW.
Predicted winner: J. Pegula (class). Value side: I. Jovic.
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