TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in J. Sinner vs S. Ofner (Rome on 2026-05-08) — the market is efficient, with J. Sinner favoured at 1.01.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | J. Sinner | S. Ofner |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
76.8% | 23.2% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
79.7% | 20.3% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
76.8% | 23.2% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
77.8% | 22.2% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
95.4% | 4.6% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated March 29, 2026.
J. Sinner leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Rome | clay | J. Sinner | 2 - 0 |
| W | A. Zverev | 3 - 1 | July 12, 2026 |
| W | N. Djokovic | 3 - 0 | July 10, 2026 |
| W | J-L. Struff | 3 - 0 | July 7, 2026 |
| W | S. Mochizuki | 3 - 0 | July 5, 2026 |
| W | J. Brooksby | 3 - 0 | July 3, 2026 |
| L | J. Fearnley | 2 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | A. Molcan | 2 - 0 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | T. A. Tirante | 0 - 2 | July 14, 2026 |
| L | D. Rincon | 2 - 1 | July 8, 2026 |
| W | N. Gombos | 0 - 2 | July 7, 2026 |
All May 8, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used