TennisEdge's AI bot is backing A. Ruzic (moneyline) in J. Ostapenko vs A. Ruzic (Wimbledon on 2026-07-01).
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | J. Ostapenko | A. Ruzic |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
67.0% | 33.0% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
59.1% | 40.9% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
48.8% | 51.2% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
63.4% | 36.6% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
76.3% | 23.7% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Ostapenko | hard | 1767 | 88–73 | 161 |
| A. Ruzic | hard | 1784 | 114–50 | 164 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated March 23, 2026.
J. Ostapenko leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 1, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | J. Ostapenko | 2 - 0 |
| L | A. Sabalenka | 2 - 0 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | A. Ruzic | 2 - 0 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | H. Dart | 2 - 1 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | T. Maria | 1 - 0 | June 26, 2026 |
| W | Z. Sonmez | 2 - 0 | June 25, 2026 |
| W | L. Boisson | 1 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | D. Salkova | 0 - 2 | July 20, 2026 |
| L | J. Ostapenko | 2 - 0 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | D. Semenistaja | 2 - 1 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | P. Marcinko | 1 - 2 | June 22, 2026 |
All July 1, 2026 results & picks →
Wimbledon 1/32 (grass) — J. Ostapenko (A) vs A. Ruzic (B) MODELS: ELO 0.67 | ML 0.591 | serve-return 0.488 | blend 0.634 (A). Market 1.25/4.03 -> devig A 0.763 / B 0.237. Value pick B, edge +12.9%. All three models sit BELOW market on Ostapenko; serve-return actually leans Ruzic. FORM A (Ostapenko): W Dart 6-3 3-6 6-4 (GRIND, Wim R1, 1d) | L Maria RET down 6-1 1-2 (Eastbourne SF, 4d) | W Sonmez 6-3 6-0 (DOM, Strong 1761) | W Udvardy 3-6 6-1 6-2 (GRIND) | W Jones 6-2 6-2 (DOM). Made Eastbourne SF then retired, then won Wim R1. High class ceiling but erratic. FORM B (Ruzic): W Semenistaja 6-3 3-6 6-3 (GRIND, Wim R1, 1d) | L Marcinko 6-7 6-4 6-7 | L McNally 6-3 6-0 (Strong 1740, blown out) | W Preston 6-3 6-7 7-5 (NOTTINGHAM FINAL, 17d, grass title) | W Juvan 6-3 6-4 (DOM) | W Hunter 6-3 4-6 7-5 (LONDON FINAL, grass title). Two grass titles in June, but wins over Weak/Avg fields; demolished by Strong+ (Andreeva 6-1 6-0, Jovic, Samsonova, McNally). FATIGUE: A = 4 matches/7d, 298 court-min, back-to-back, RET 4d ago. B = 1 match/7d, 251 court-min, last 1d. Court-time diff 47min, matches_14d diff 2 -> slight edge B on rest; A carrying heavier 7d load + fitness flag. NARRATIVE: Ostapenko RET 4d ago = fitness NOTE on favorite. Ruzic TITLE Nottingham 17d ago (grass), London ~23d ago (grass) — live grass form. Venue (Wimbledon) neutral, both 1-0. No let-down on either (titles >7d). VERDICT: Contingent underdog value. 4.03 overprices Ostapenko's certainty given her 4-in-7 load + retirement 4d ago and erratic profile, while Ruzic carries real grass form. Tempered by Ruzic's blowout losses to Strong+ players — Ostapenko is a level above her usual field. Small bet on B; predicted match-winner stays Ostapenko.