TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in H. Medjedovic vs J. Fonseca (Rome on 2026-05-08) — the market is efficient, with J. Fonseca favoured at 1.44.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | H. Medjedovic | J. Fonseca |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
68.5% | 31.5% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
77.7% | 22.3% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
83.9% | 16.1% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
76.7% | 23.3% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
34.4% | 65.6% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| H. Medjedovic | clay | 1875 | 100–43 | 143 |
| J. Fonseca | hard | 1954 | 61–22 | 83 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated May 27, 2026.
H. Medjedovic leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Rome | clay | H. Medjedovic | 2 - 1 |
| L | S. Ofner | 2 - 3 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | U. Humbert | 1 - 2 | June 19, 2026 |
| W | A. Rinderknech | 0 - 2 | June 16, 2026 |
| L | C. Ruud | 3 - 0 | May 27, 2026 |
| W | Y. Hanfmann | 3 - 1 | May 24, 2026 |
| W | C. Moutet | 3 - 1 | July 18, 2026 |
| W | T. Griekspoor | 3 - 1 | July 18, 2026 |
| L | N. Kyrgios | 0 - 3 | July 18, 2026 |
| L | R. Safiullin | 3 - 0 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | J. De Jong | 0 - 3 | July 1, 2026 |
All May 8, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used