TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in F. Auger-Aliassime vs M. Navone (Rome on 2026-05-08) — the market is efficient, with F. Auger-Aliassime favoured at 1.57.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | F. Auger-Aliassime | M. Navone |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
34.0% | 66.0% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
35.4% | 64.6% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
57.0% | 43.0% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
42.2% | 57.8% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
60.2% | 39.8% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Auger-Aliassime | hard | 1996 | 169–85 | 254 |
| M. Navone | clay | 1815 | 195–108 | 303 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated April 4, 2026.
M. Navone leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Rome | clay | M. Navone | 2 - 0 |
| April 15, 2025 | Munich | clay | M. Navone | 2 - 1 |
| L | N. Djokovic | 2 - 3 | July 7, 2026 |
| W | A. Davidovich Fokina | 3 - 2 | July 5, 2026 |
| W | M. Zheng | 3 - 0 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | D. Prizmic | 3 - 0 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | A. Shevchenko | 3 - 0 | June 29, 2026 |
| W | M. Berrettini | 1 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | Q. Halys | 0 - 2 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | J-L. Struff | 0 - 2 | July 22, 2026 |
| W | A. Muller | 0 - 2 | July 20, 2026 |
| L | S. Travaglia | 2 - 0 | July 15, 2026 |
All May 8, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used