TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in E. Svitolina vs N. Basiletti (Rome on 2026-05-08) — the market is efficient, with E. Svitolina favoured at 1.05.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | E. Svitolina | N. Basiletti |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
74.4% | 25.6% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
82.8% | 17.2% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
48.9% | 51.1% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
68.7% | 31.3% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
91.3% | 8.7% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Svitolina | hard | 2004 | 91–52 | 143 |
| N. Basiletti | clay | 1490 | 32–35 | 67 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 31, 2026.
E. Svitolina leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 8, 2026 | Rome | clay | E. Svitolina | 2 - 0 |
| W | P. Kudermetova | 0 - 2 | July 31, 2026 |
| L | A. Eala | 2 - 0 | July 31, 2026 |
| L | D. Snigur | 0 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | Xin. Wang | Walk Over | June 25, 2026 |
| W | L. Samsonova | 1 - 2 | June 23, 2026 |
| W | M. Weckerle | 0 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | F. Ferro | 0 - 2 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | E. V. Eigelsbach | 0 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | M. Hodzic | 2 - 1 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | R. Serban | 2 - 0 | July 21, 2026 |
All May 8, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used