TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in E. Navarro vs E. Cocciaretto (Rome on 2026-05-08) — the market is efficient, with E. Navarro favoured at 1.76.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | E. Navarro | E. Cocciaretto |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
54.4% | 45.6% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
54.8% | 45.2% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
54.6% | 45.4% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
53.9% | 46.1% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Navarro | hard | 1713 | 86–63 | 149 |
| E. Cocciaretto | clay | 1690 | 94–47 | 141 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 29, 2026.
E. Cocciaretto leads 3–1 over 4 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 29, 2026 | Washington | hard | E. Cocciaretto | 2 - 1 |
| May 8, 2026 | Rome | clay | E. Cocciaretto | 2 - 0 |
| Sept. 21, 2025 | WTA Billie Jean King Cup - World Group | — | E. Cocciaretto | 2 - 0 |
| Jan. 18, 2024 | WTA Australian Open | hard | E. Navarro | 2 - 1 |
| L | E. Cocciaretto | 1 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | S. Kenin | 2 - 0 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | M. Kostyuk | 1 - 2 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | O. Selekhmeteva | 2 - 1 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | P. Badosa | 2 - 1 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | T. Gibson | 1 - 0 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | N. Osaka | 1 - 2 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | E. Navarro | 1 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | C. Tauson | 2 - 1 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | Xin. Wang | 2 - 1 | June 29, 2026 |
All May 8, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used