TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in E. Alexandrova vs L. Siegemund (Rome on 2026-05-08) — the market is efficient, with E. Alexandrova favoured at 1.62.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | E. Alexandrova | L. Siegemund |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
48.4% | 51.6% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
37.0% | 62.9% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
37.6% | 62.4% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
41.0% | 59.0% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
58.7% | 41.3% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Alexandrova | hard | 1760 | 103–77 | 180 |
| L. Siegemund | hard | 1715 | 70–62 | 132 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 28, 2026.
Level at 2–2 over 4 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 8, 2026 | Rome | clay | L. Siegemund | 2 - 1 |
| Aug. 30, 2025 | US Open | hard | E. Alexandrova | 2 - 0 |
| Jan. 15, 2024 | WTA Australian Open | hard | L. Siegemund | 2 - 1 |
| June 28, 2021 | Wimbledon | grass | E. Alexandrova | 2 - 0 |
| L | K. Liutova | 1 - 1 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | I. Jovic | 1 - 2 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | L. Tararudee | 2 - 0 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | P. Udvardy | 2 - 0 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | N. Osaka | 2 - 0 | June 25, 2026 |
| L | E. Mertens | 2 - 0 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | S. Bejlek | 2 - 1 | June 23, 2026 |
| L | A. Anisimova | 0 - 2 | June 10, 2026 |
| W | F. Jones | 2 - 0 | June 9, 2026 |
| L | N. Osaka | 0 - 2 | May 26, 2026 |
All May 8, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used