TennisEdge's AI bot is backing J. Bouzas Maneiro (moneyline) in D. Yastremska vs J. Bouzas Maneiro (Wimbledon on 2026-07-01).
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | D. Yastremska | J. Bouzas Maneiro |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
47.4% | 52.6% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
43.8% | 56.2% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
46.5% | 53.5% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
46.8% | 53.2% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
49.0% | 51.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Yastremska | hard | 1707 | 86–81 | 167 |
| J. Bouzas Maneiro | clay | 1679 | 122–67 | 189 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated March 20, 2026.
J. Bouzas Maneiro leads 3–1 over 4 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 1, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | J. Bouzas Maneiro | 2 - 1 |
| May 16, 2026 | Parma | clay | D. Yastremska | 2 - 1 |
| Sept. 27, 2025 | Beijing | hard | J. Bouzas Maneiro | 2 - 0 |
| July 5, 2025 | Wimbledon | grass | J. Bouzas Maneiro | 2 - 1 |
| L | J. Bouzas Maneiro | 1 - 2 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | A. Ito | 2 - 1 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | T. Maria | 0 - 2 | June 17, 2026 |
| W | A. Dudeney | 0 - 2 | June 16, 2026 |
| L | A. Tomljanovic | 2 - 1 | June 12, 2026 |
| W | A. Arseneault | 2 - 0 | Aug. 2, 2026 |
| L | M. Bouzkova | 2 - 0 | July 20, 2026 |
| L | Q. Zheng | 2 - 0 | July 13, 2026 |
| L | J. Pegula | 2 - 0 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | D. Yastremska | 1 - 2 | July 1, 2026 |
All July 1, 2026 results & picks →
MATCH: D. Yastremska (A, @2.00) vs J. Bouzas Maneiro (B, @1.92) — Wimbledon R128, grass. MODELS: ELO 47.4% A / 52.6% B | ML 43.8% A / 56.2% B | Blend 46.8% A / 53.2% B. Market: A 49.0% / B 51.0%. value_pick B, edge +2.2% (post-shrink). All three models AND market agree B is favorite; ML is the meaningful disagreement (56% vs market 51%). FORM — Yastremska (grass 3W-2L): W vs Ito 1404(Weak) 7-6 4-6 7-5 GRIND; L vs Maria 1765(Strong) 1-6 2-6; W vs Dudeney 1461(Weak) 4-6 7-6 GRIND; L vs Tomljanovic 1668(Strong) 4-6 6-4 7-5; W vs Bejlek 1390(Weak) 6-1 6-2 DOM. Pattern: grinds past weak players, loses to Strong. Last match a draining 3-setter (6/29). FORM — Bouzas (grass 4W-3L): W vs Potapova 1613(Avg) 6-2 6-3 DOM (most recent!); L vs Keys 1819(Strong) 0-6 1-6; W vs Dudeney 1441(Weak) 6-0 6-3 DOM; L vs Navarro 1785(Strong) 6-7 2-6; W vs Volynets 1641 ret; W vs Sakatsume 1503(Weak) 7-5 6-2; reached Nottingham QF. Cleaner, more dominant wins than A. H2H: Yastremska won the only meeting (Parma SF, CLAY) 7-6 6-7 7-5 — a coin-flip, and not on grass. FATIGUE: A 3 matches/235min 14d; B 5 matches/251min 14d. Court time near-equal (16min), B more matches. Both back-to-back off 6/29. Roughly equal — neither side meaningfully advantaged. NARRATIVE: No let-down spot (no recent Final). Title recency: Yastremska Parma title ~45d ago on clay — stale, outside relevance window for grass. Venue: neither has Wimbledon history here. VERDICT: BET B (Bouzas) 0.6u. ML disagrees with market and the qualitative grass read validates it — Bouzas's most recent match was a clean DOM over an Avg opponent, while Yastremska is grinding 3-setters past Weak players and is coming off a draining match. H2H counter-signal exists but it was clay and a coin-flip. Edge is thin (+2.2%) and model confidence low, so stake kept small via 0.25-Kelly.