TennisEdge's AI bot is backing D. Parry (moneyline) in D. Parry vs A. Kalinskaya (Wimbledon on 2026-07-01).
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | D. Parry | A. Kalinskaya |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
55.7% | 44.3% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
35.3% | 64.7% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
66.6% | 33.4% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
55.7% | 44.3% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
38.0% | 62.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Parry | clay | 1663 | 105–71 | 176 |
| A. Kalinskaya | hard | 1880 | 126–78 | 204 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 21, 2026.
A. Kalinskaya leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 1, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | A. Kalinskaya | 2 - 1 |
| April 24, 2025 | Madrid | clay | A. Kalinskaya | 2 - 0 |
| L | K. Day | 1 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | M. Hontama | 0 - 2 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | A. Kalinskaya | 1 - 2 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | F. Jones | 0 - 2 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | I. Begu | 0 - 2 | June 21, 2026 |
| L | J. Pegula | 2 - 0 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | J. Tjen | 1 - 2 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | D. Kasatkina | 0 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | B. Bencic | 2 - 1 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | D. Parry | 1 - 2 | July 1, 2026 |
All July 1, 2026 results & picks →
Wimbledon R32 (grass) — D. Parry (A) vs A. Kalinskaya (B) MODELS ELO P(A)=0.557 | ML P(A)=0.353 | blended model P(A)=0.557 Market: A 2.50 (impl 0.38) / B 1.53 (impl 0.62) — value_pick A, edge +0.178 Alignment: ELO disagrees w/ market (likes Parry); ML agrees w/ market (likes Kalinskaya). No mutual model agreement. FORM — PARRY (grass, red-hot) 06-29 W vs Jones (1391, Weak) 6-4 6-4 GRIND — Wimbledon R64 06-21 L FINAL Bad Homburg vs Begu (1569) 4-6 6-7 (tight) 06-20 W vs Ito (1413, Weak) 6-2 6-1 DOM 06-18 L vs Noskova (1747, Strong) 2-6 2-6 06-16 W vs Tauson (1631, Avg) 6-3 6-4 GRIND 06-15 W FINAL Berlin vs Kalinina (1633) 6-4 7-5 — TITLE (grass) 06-15 W SF vs Seidel (1604) 6-3 6-4 GRIND Read: back-to-back deep grass runs into Wimbledon — Berlin champion + Bad Homburg finalist. Surface clearly suits her. Wins mostly GRIND vs Weak/Avg though. FORM — KALINSKAYA (grass, shaky; clay strong) 06-29 W vs Frech (1476, Weak) 7-6 6-4 GRIND — Wimbledon R64 06-24 L vs Ruse (1803, Strong) 5-7 2-6 06-22 W vs Kraus (1570, Avg) 6-4 6-1 GRIND 06-16 L vs Svitolina (1811) ret. 1-6 1-4 French QF run (beat Potapova 1949 Elite, Boisson, Osorio) — but that quality was on CLAY. Read: grass tune-ups poor — only beat Weak/Avg, lost to every Strong opp. Higher overall quality but wrong surface form. FATIGUE Parry: 5 matches/14d, 298min court, back-to-back. Kalinskaya: 4/14d, 230min, no B2B. Court-time diff 68min (>60) → Parry the heavier-loaded side, slight disadvantage. NARRATIVE Let-down: Parry lost Bad Homburg Final 9d ago — outside window → None. Title recency: TITLE Berlin 15d ago (grass) — live grass form outweighs Kalinskaya's superior clay/ranking pedigree. Venue: Parry 1-0 at Wimbledon this week. VERDICT Market prices Parry at 2.50 on overall ranking/quality (where Kalinskaya is higher), but underweights live grass form. Parry = grass specialist peaking (title + final in two weeks); Kalinskaya looks ordinary on the surface. ELO edge is validated by the surface-form read. Breakeven 0.40; estimate Parry ~0.47-0.50 true → +EV. Tempered by ML disagreement, fatigue load, and weak opposition quality. Small-stake value play on Parry.