TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in C. McNally vs S. Sierra (Hertogenbosch on 2026-06-11) — the market is efficient, with C. McNally favoured at 1.50.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | C. McNally | S. Sierra |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
66.1% | 33.9% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
71.4% | 28.6% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
57.9% | 42.1% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
65.1% | 34.9% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
63.6% | 36.4% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. McNally | hard | 1736 | 85–66 | 151 |
| S. Sierra | clay | 1799 | 152–59 | 211 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 4, 2026.
Level at 1–1 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 12, 2026 | Hertogenbosch | grass | C. McNally | 2 - 0 |
| Jan. 12, 2026 | WTA Hobart | hard | S. Sierra | 2 - 1 |
| W | T. Maria | 1 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | K. Liutova | 2 - 0 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | Y. Ma | 0 - 2 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | Xiy. Wang | 1 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | E. Rybakina | 0 - 2 | July 2, 2026 |
| L | S. Stephens | 0 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | T. Prozorova | 1 - 2 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | C. Gauff | 1 - 2 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | A. Bondar | 2 - 1 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | Q. Zheng | 1 - 2 | June 22, 2026 |
All June 11, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used