TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in G. Ruse vs E. Mertens (Hertogenbosch on 2026-06-11) — the market is efficient, with E. Mertens favoured at 1.33.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | G. Ruse | E. Mertens |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
39.5% | 60.5% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
21.3% | 78.7% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
44.7% | 55.3% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
35.2% | 64.8% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
28.1% | 71.9% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| G. Ruse | hard | 1766 | 83–58 | 141 |
| E. Mertens | hard | 1855 | 118–77 | 195 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.
E. Mertens leads 4–1 over 5 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 11, 2026 | Hertogenbosch | grass | G. Ruse | 2 - 0 |
| June 15, 2025 | Hertogenbosch | grass | E. Mertens | 2 - 0 |
| March 3, 2023 | WTA Monterrey | hard | E. Mertens | 2 - 1 |
| Feb. 13, 2023 | Doha | hard | E. Mertens | 2 - 1 |
| May 22, 2022 | French Open | clay | E. Mertens | 2 - 0 |
| W | P. Stearns | 2 - 0 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | K. Quevedo | 2 - 0 | July 14, 2026 |
| L | C. McNally | 0 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | K. Muchova | 0 - 2 | June 26, 2026 |
| W | E. Navarro | 0 - 2 | June 25, 2026 |
| L | L. Noskova | 2 - 0 | July 8, 2026 |
| W | M. Bouzkova | 0 - 2 | July 6, 2026 |
| W | E. Rybakina | 2 - 0 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | M. Timofeeva | 2 - 1 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | L. Siegemund | 2 - 0 | June 30, 2026 |
All June 11, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used