TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in A. Potapova vs Z. Sonmez (Hertogenbosch on 2026-06-11) — the market is efficient, with A. Potapova favoured at 1.44.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | A. Potapova | Z. Sonmez |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
47.6% | 52.4% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
31.7% | 68.3% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
39.6% | 60.4% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
65.6% | 34.4% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Potapova | hard | 1713 | 81–83 | 164 |
| Z. Sonmez | hard | 1722 | 95–68 | 163 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 30, 2026.
Level at 1–1 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 11, 2026 | Hertogenbosch | grass | Z. Sonmez | 1 - 0 |
| Sept. 29, 2025 | Beijing | hard | A. Potapova | 2 - 0 |
| L | D. Shnaider | 2 - 0 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | V. Williams | 2 - 0 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | J. Bouzas Maneiro | 2 - 0 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | E. Alexandrova | 1 - 0 | June 15, 2026 |
| L | Z. Sonmez | 0 - 1 | June 11, 2026 |
All June 11, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used