TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in C. McNally vs I. Swiatek (Rome on 2026-05-08) — the market is efficient, with I. Swiatek favoured at 1.08.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | C. McNally | I. Swiatek |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
20.3% | 79.7% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
13.4% | 86.6% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
64.0% | 36.0% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
32.6% | 67.4% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
13.4% | 86.6% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. McNally | hard | 1736 | 85–66 | 151 |
| I. Swiatek | hard | 2021 | 184–49 | 233 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 4, 2026.
I. Swiatek leads 3–0 over 3 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 8, 2026 | Rome | clay | I. Swiatek | 2 - 1 |
| July 3, 2025 | Wimbledon | grass | I. Swiatek | 2 - 1 |
| Oct. 7, 2022 | Ostrava | hard | I. Swiatek | 2 - 0 |
| W | T. Maria | 1 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | K. Liutova | 2 - 0 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | Y. Ma | 0 - 2 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | Xiy. Wang | 1 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | E. Rybakina | 0 - 2 | July 2, 2026 |
| L | A. Eala | 2 - 0 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | Ka. Pliskova | 0 - 2 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | T. Townsend | 1 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | E. Navarro | 1 - 2 | June 24, 2026 |
| L | M. Kostyuk | 2 - 0 | May 31, 2026 |
All May 8, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used