TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in C. Garin vs A. Davidovich Fokina (Rome on 2026-05-08) — the market is efficient, with A. Davidovich Fokina favoured at 1.66.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | C. Garin | A. Davidovich Fokina |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
69.2% | 30.8% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
65.2% | 34.8% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
67.2% | 32.8% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
42.9% | 57.1% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Garin | clay | 1733 | 93–64 | 157 |
| A. Davidovich Fokina | hard | 1851 | 107–90 | 197 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated May 26, 2026.
A. Davidovich Fokina leads 3–0 over 3 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Rome | clay | A. Davidovich Fokina | 2 - 0 |
| March 14, 2023 | ATP Indian Wells | hard | A. Davidovich Fokina | 2 - 0 |
| Oct. 20, 2021 | Antwerp | hard | A. Davidovich Fokina | 2 - 1 |
| L | L. Tien | 1 - 3 | May 26, 2026 |
| L | H. Squire | 2 - 1 | May 16, 2026 |
| L | L. Midon | 1 - 2 | May 12, 2026 |
| L | A. Davidovich Fokina | 0 - 2 | May 9, 2026 |
| W | J. M. Cerundolo | 2 - 0 | May 7, 2026 |
| L | A. Molcan | 2 - 1 | July 16, 2026 |
| W | M. Trungelliti | 0 - 2 | July 15, 2026 |
| L | F. Auger-Aliassime | 3 - 2 | July 5, 2026 |
| W | M. Fucsovics | 3 - 0 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | F. Marozsan | 3 - 0 | July 1, 2026 |
All May 8, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used