TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in A. Tabilo vs F. Cerundolo (Rome on 2026-05-08) — the market is efficient, with F. Cerundolo favoured at 1.57.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | A. Tabilo | F. Cerundolo |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
44.3% | 55.7% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
29.9% | 70.1% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
65.2% | 34.8% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
46.5% | 53.5% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
39.5% | 60.5% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Tabilo | clay | 1825 | 125–68 | 193 |
| F. Cerundolo | clay | 1861 | 125–69 | 194 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 22, 2026.
Level at 1–1 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 8, 2026 | Rome | clay | F. Cerundolo | 2 - 0 |
| Feb. 1, 2022 | Cordoba | clay | A. Tabilo | 2 - 0 |
| L | R. Jodar | 2 - 1 | Aug. 2, 2026 |
| W | B. Shelton | 2 - 1 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | T. Atmane | 0 - 2 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | T. Griekspoor | 2 - 1 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | T. Torres | 0 - 2 | July 22, 2026 |
| L | A. Gea | 1 - 2 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | T. Boyer | 0 - 1 | July 30, 2026 |
| L | L. Miguel | 3 - 2 | July 18, 2026 |
| W | C. Norrie | 3 - 0 | July 18, 2026 |
| L | B. Nakashima | 1 - 3 | July 17, 2026 |
All May 8, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used