TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in A. Potapova vs K. Muchova (Rome on 2026-05-08) — the market is efficient, with K. Muchova favoured at 1.36.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | A. Potapova | K. Muchova |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
61.6% | 38.4% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
67.1% | 32.9% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
45.4% | 54.6% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
58.0% | 42.0% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
29.8% | 70.2% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Potapova | hard | 1713 | 81–83 | 164 |
| K. Muchova | hard | 2060 | 106–43 | 149 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 30, 2026.
K. Muchova leads 3–1 over 4 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 8, 2026 | Rome | clay | A. Potapova | 2 - 0 |
| Jan. 31, 2025 | Linz | clay | K. Muchova | 2 - 1 |
| Aug. 31, 2024 | WTA US Open | hard | K. Muchova | 2 - 0 |
| Aug. 8, 2023 | WTA Montreal | hard | K. Muchova | 2 - 0 |
| L | D. Shnaider | 2 - 0 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | V. Williams | 2 - 0 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | J. Bouzas Maneiro | 2 - 0 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | E. Alexandrova | 1 - 0 | June 15, 2026 |
| L | Z. Sonmez | 0 - 1 | June 11, 2026 |
| L | L. Noskova | 1 - 2 | July 11, 2026 |
| W | C. Gauff | 2 - 1 | July 9, 2026 |
| W | N. Osaka | 0 - 2 | July 7, 2026 |
| W | B. Krejcikova | 2 - 1 | July 5, 2026 |
| W | M. Sawangkaew | 2 - 0 | July 3, 2026 |
All May 8, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used