TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in A. Pellegrino vs A. Fils (Rome on 2026-05-08) — the market is efficient, with A. Fils favoured at 1.11.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | A. Pellegrino | A. Fils |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
32.9% | 67.1% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
19.9% | 80.1% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
24.9% | 75.1% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
25.9% | 74.1% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
14.3% | 85.7% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Pellegrino | clay | 1724 | 175–135 | 310 |
| A. Fils | hard | 1933 | 90–61 | 151 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 30, 2026.
A. Pellegrino leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Rome | clay | A. Pellegrino | 0 - 0 |
| L | T. Monteiro | 2 - 0 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | C. A. Caniato | 0 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | G. Bueno | 1 - 2 | July 19, 2026 |
| W | J. D. Silva | 2 - 0 | July 18, 2026 |
| L | A. Rublev | 2 - 1 | July 16, 2026 |
| L | R. Jodar | 0 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | M. Berrettini | 3 - 1 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | R. Collignon | 0 - 3 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | T. Paul | 0 - 2 | June 24, 2026 |
| W | J. Mensik | 1 - 2 | June 23, 2026 |
All May 8, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used