TennisEdge's AI bot is backing M. Sawangkaew (moneyline) in A. Parks vs M. Sawangkaew (Wimbledon on 2026-07-01).
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | A. Parks | M. Sawangkaew |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
24.3% | 75.7% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
50.2% | 49.8% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
26.9% | 73.1% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
41.8% | 58.2% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
59.4% | 40.6% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Parks | hard | 1714 | 104–98 | 202 |
| M. Sawangkaew | hard | 1718 | 145–79 | 224 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.
M. Sawangkaew leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 1, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | M. Sawangkaew | 2 - 0 |
| Oct. 1, 2024 | Hong Kong | hard | M. Sawangkaew | 2 - 1 |
| W | V. Jimenez Kasintseva | 0 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | L. Havlickova | 0 - 2 | July 20, 2026 |
| L | M. Sakkari | 0 - 2 | July 17, 2026 |
| W | M. Hontama | 1 - 2 | July 15, 2026 |
| W | V. Grammatikopoulou | 0 - 2 | July 13, 2026 |
| L | R. Sramkova | 0 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | T. Preston | 2 - 1 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | E. Jones | 0 - 2 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | N. Hibino | 1 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | E. S. Liang | 0 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
All July 1, 2026 results & picks →
A. Parks vs M. Sawangkaew | Wimbledon (grass) | 1/32-finals MODELS - Market: Parks @1.65 (imp 59.4%) | Sawangkaew @2.41 (imp 40.6%) - ELO p(A)=0.243 ML p(A)=0.502 MODEL p(A)=0.418 -> model favors B (Sawangkaew) 58.2% - Value pick B, edge +17.6%. ELO strongly disagrees with market; ML neutral. FORM (grass) - Parks: CLAY resume (won Madrid & Stuttgart titles), but grass = mediocre. Lost 3 straight grass SFs in 3 sets (Eastbourne/Arango, Berlin/Brockmann, London/Inglis). Only Wimb win so far DOM vs Dudeney (1423, Weak) 6-3 6-3. Clay specialist exposed on grass. - Sawangkaew: GRASS form player. Won Birmingham title (beat Ito 7-6 6-3), beat Stoiana (1698 Strong) on grass, four straight Wimbledon-bracket wins. Pattern = GRIND: repeatedly drops 1st set 2-6 then escapes in 3. Slow starter but grass-comfortable. FATIGUE - Parks: 2 matches/14d, 158min court time. Reasonably fresh. - Sawangkaew: 4 matches/14d, 369min court time, 2 back-to-back days. Heavy 3-set grind load -> diff >60min, Sawangkaew disadvantaged on legs. NARRATIVE - Let-down: Sawangkaew won a Final ~5d ago -> WEAK signal only. - Venue/surface momentum strongly favors Sawangkaew; surface form > Parks' historical clay ELO. VERDICT: BET B (Sawangkaew) 2.0u @2.41. Market overrates Parks on the strength of her CLAY titles/ranking; on grass Sawangkaew is the live-form player and ELO (76%) + model (58%) both back her vs a clay specialist losing tight grass SFs. ML neutral and Sawangkaew's heavy 3-set fatigue + slow-starter pattern cap the size below the bot's 2.5u.