TennisEdge's AI bot is backing A. Eala (moneyline) in A. Eala vs M. Joint (Wimbledon on 2026-07-02).
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | A. Eala | M. Joint |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
79.0% | 21.0% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
69.3% | 30.7% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
79.0% | 21.0% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
69.9% | 30.1% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.
Level at 1–1 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 2, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | A. Eala | 2 - 1 |
| June 28, 2025 | Eastbourne | grass | M. Joint | 2 - 1 |
| W | J. Pegula | 1 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| W | N. Osaka | 0 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | E. Svitolina | 2 - 0 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | L. Fernandez | 0 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | Q. Zheng | 2 - 1 | July 28, 2026 |
| W | Y. Starodubtseva | 1 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| W | A. Grubor | 2 - 1 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | K. Liutova | 2 - 1 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | W. Osuigwe | 2 - 0 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | T. Valentova | 1 - 2 | July 22, 2026 |
All July 2, 2026 results & picks →
═══════════════════════════════════════════ A. Eala vs M. Joint — Wimbledon (grass) 1/32-finals ═══════════════════════════════════════════ MODELS ELO : Eala 78.98% ML : Eala 69.33% MODEL : Eala 78.98% MARKET: Eala 69.89% (1.31) | Joint 30.11% (3.04) VALUE : A +9.1% edge FORM — Eala (grass, red hot) W Wimbledon R64 6-1 6-2 vs Zarazua(1564,Avg) DOM L Bad Homburg 3-6 3-6 vs Mertens(1746,Strong) L Berlin SF 2-6 4-6 vs Noskova(1813,Strong) W Berlin QF 6-3 6-4 vs Svitolina(1840,Strong) DOM W Berlin R16 7-5 6-4 vs Rybakina(1838,Strong) GRIND W Birmingham FINAL 5-7 6-3 7-5 vs Bartunkova(1822) GRIND TITLE: Birmingham 24d ago (grass) — deep grass run, beat multiple Strong-tier players FORM — Joint (thin level) W Wimbledon R64 3-6 7-6 3-6 vs S.Williams(1387,Weak) GRIND L Eastbourne 6-7 4-6 vs Arango(1427,Weak) L Nottingham 7-6 5-7 4-6 vs Starodubtseva(1561,Avg) L French Open 1-6 2-6 vs Potapova(1912) Pattern: losing to Weak/Avg opposition, only win was a 3-set grind vs a 1387 elo FATIGUE Eala : 6 matches/14d, ~367 court min, back-to-back 3, last 2026-06-30 Joint: 2 matches/14d, ~174 court min, rested, last 2026-06-30 EDGE : Joint materially fresher (>60min diff) — Eala's only real vulnerability NARRATIVE Let-down: WEAK (Birmingham title 24d ago, well outside window) Venue: neutral (both R64 wins at Wimbledon) Live grass form: Eala clearly a tier above; Joint beating only sub-1600s VERDICT Class gap is real and grass-validated: Eala has DOM'd Strong-tier grass players (Svitolina, Rybakina) and won a grass title; Joint has been losing to Weak/Avg opponents. ELO strongly backs Eala; ML/market straddle. The +9.1% edge is genuine but priced short (1.31) and Eala carries a heavy schedule vs a rested opponent. Modest-size bet on Eala. DECISION: BET A (Eala) 1.0u @1.31 ═══════════════════════════════════════════