TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in K. Jacquet vs A. Bublik (Wimbledon on 2026-07-02) — the market is efficient, with A. Bublik favoured at 1.26.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | K. Jacquet | A. Bublik |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
39.8% | 60.2% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
34.9% | 65.1% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
53.9% | 46.1% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
38.1% | 61.9% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
26.5% | 73.5% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Jacquet | clay | 1612 | 85–61 | 146 |
| A. Bublik | hard | 1879 | 111–93 | 204 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 22, 2026.
A. Bublik leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 2, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | A. Bublik | 3 - 0 |
| L | G. Diallo | 2 - 1 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| W | A. Shevchenko | 1 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | A. Blockx | 1 - 2 | July 22, 2026 |
| W | D. Merida Aguilar | 1 - 2 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | T. Daniel | 1 - 2 | July 19, 2026 |
| L | Q. Halys | 0 - 2 | July 25, 2026 |
| W | T. M. Etcheverry | 2 - 0 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | A. Molcan | 2 - 0 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | F. Diaz Acosta | 2 - 0 | July 22, 2026 |
| L | Q. Halys | 1 - 2 | July 17, 2026 |
All July 2, 2026 results & picks →
═══ K. Jacquet vs A. Bublik — Wimbledon (grass) 1/32-finals ═══
MODELS
ELO : Jacquet 39.8% | Bublik 60.2%
ML : Jacquet 34.9% | Bublik 65.1%
S/R : Jacquet 53.9%
Blend : Jacquet 38.1% | Bublik 61.9%
Market: Jacquet 26.5% (@3.50) | Bublik 73.5% (@1.26)
Value : model flags A (Jacquet), edge +11.6%, bot suggests 2.5u
FORM
Jacquet (id 1335): huge grass run — "won" Wimbledon Final 25 Jun & French Open Final 22 May
on paper, but opponent ELO band is Avg all the way (1577-1678). Latest: beat Gaubas
(1630) 6-3 6-4 7-6 on 30 Jun — three-set GRIND. Wins vs Skatov/Guerrieri/Gill/Fatic/
Giustino = soft draw. No DOM scalps of Strong/Elite. Lost to Dimitrov(1820) & Trungelliti(1764).
Bublik (id 1895): Elite level. Stuttgart SF (lost to Fritz 1989), beat Struff/Mpetshi/
Perricard on grass. Regularly faces Alcaraz(2194)/Tsitsipas(1820)/Lehecka. Latest:
beat Kokkinakis (1636) in a 5-setter on 30 Jun. Class & serve on grass are real weapons.
FATIGUE
Jacquet: 7 matches / 14d, 669 court-min, 3 back-to-back, played yesterday — heavily loaded.
Bublik : 2 matches / 14d, 281 court-min, 0 back-to-back, BUT a full 5-setter yesterday.
Court-time diff 388min → Jacquet cumulative-fatigue disadvantaged; Bublik fresher over 14d
despite the long match. Fatigue leans AGAINST the model's Jacquet pick.
NARRATIVE
Let-down: Jacquet "won" a Final 25 Jun (5-7d window) → WEAK let-down signal, minor.
Venue : both active at Wimbledon; no differential edge.
Title : Jacquet TITLE Wimbledon 5d ago on the data, but the recorded titles are over
Avg-tier fields — live-form quality does not translate up to Bublik's level.
VERDICT — PASS
The +11.6% model edge on Jacquet is a soft-draw artifact: the models reward his win-count
against a 1577-1678 field, but opponent quality > win count. Bublik operates a full tier
higher (Fritz/Alcaraz/Tsitsipas), owns the bigger serve on grass, and is the fresher man
over 14 days. Fatigue + class gap both cut against backing Jacquet, so the qualitative read
does NOT validate the model. Bublik @1.26 is short but fair — no exploitable value either
side. Stand down.