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C. McNally vs E. Rybakina — Prediction & Analysis

Wimbledon · WTA Wimbledon - 1/32-finals · July 2, 2026 · 12:00 UTC

TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in C. McNally vs E. Rybakina (Wimbledon on 2026-07-02) — the market is efficient, with E. Rybakina favoured at 1.14.

Surface grass Odds C. McNally 7.03 · E. Rybakina 1.14

Verdict: no bet

The model found no value at current prices — the market has this one priced about right. That verdict is part of the public record too.
Profiles: C. McNally · E. Rybakina · head-to-head record · Wimbledon

Model probabilities

Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.

Method C. McNally E. Rybakina
Elo
ratings-based, surface-weighted
 39.6% 60.3%
Machine learning
29-feature gradient-boosted model
 44.0% 56.0%
Serve / return
point-by-point simulation
 59.2% 40.8%
Blend
what the bot actually prices off
 37.8% 62.2%
Market implied
de-vigged from the opening odds
 14.0% 86.0%

We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?

Elo ratings

PlayerSurfaceEloRecordMatches
C. McNally hard1736 85–66151
E. Rybakina hard2149 174–69243

Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 4, 2026.

Head to head

E. Rybakina leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.

DateEventSurfaceWinnerScore
July 2, 2026WimbledongrassE. Rybakina2 - 0
Sept. 26, 2025BeijinghardE. Rybakina2 - 1

Recent form

C. McNally

W T. Maria 1 - 2 Aug. 4, 2026
L K. Liutova 2 - 0 July 31, 2026
W Y. Ma 0 - 2 July 30, 2026
W Xiy. Wang 1 - 2 July 28, 2026
L E. Rybakina 0 - 2 July 2, 2026

E. Rybakina

L E. Mertens 2 - 0 July 4, 2026
W C. McNally 0 - 2 July 2, 2026
W L. Boisson 1 - 2 June 30, 2026
L A. Eala 2 - 0 June 18, 2026
W T. Maria 2 - 1 June 12, 2026

All July 2, 2026 results & picks →

Full analysis

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C. McNally (A) vs E. Rybakina (B)
Wimbledon · grass · 1/32-finals · 2026-07-02
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ODDS      A 7.03 (imp 14.0%)  |  B 1.14 (imp 86.0%)
          value_pick A · edge +23.8%
MODELS    ELO   A 39.6%
          ML    A 44.0%
          S/R   A 59.2%
          BLEND A 37.8% / B 62.2%  (conf low 0.05)

FORM (grass, recent first)
  McNally: L Ruse(1814,Str) 5-7 3-6 | L Marcinko 3set | W Arango(W) DOM
           | W Tjen(W) GRIND | L Ka.Pliskova | W Ruzic(1704,Str) DOM
           Best grass = DOM over Strong-tier; but lost STRAIGHT to 1814 two days ago.
  Rybakina: W Boisson 4-6 6-1 6-3 GRIND | L Eala(1860) | Stuttgart TITLE (clay)
            beating Andreeva/Muchova. Elite grass ceiling, ex-Wimbledon champ, big serve.

FATIGUE
  McNally  6 matches/14d · 439 court-min · back-to-back · NOT rested
  Rybakina 2 matches/14d · 154 court-min · fresh
  >> Heavy edge to Rybakina. McNally cooked; opposite of what an A bet needs.

NARRATIVE
  Let-down: None for Rybakina (last title clay, 2+mo ago).
  Venue: Rybakina elite-tier grass pedigree; McNally no elite grass scalps.

VERDICT — PASS
  The +23.8% "edge" on McNally is a model artifact. ELO/ML underrate the
  class + surface gap that the 1.14 price correctly reflects: elite fresh
  grass server vs an exhausted journeyman who just lost R1-caliber tests.
  Fatigue and matchup both point AWAY from McNally. No value on A;
  B at 1.14 is unbettable. Market efficient. Pass.
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