TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in T. C. Grant vs M. Bouzkova (Wimbledon on 2026-07-02) — the market is efficient, with M. Bouzkova favoured at 1.36.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | T. C. Grant | M. Bouzkova |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
52.9% | 47.1% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
32.0% | 68.0% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
38.1% | 61.9% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
29.8% | 70.2% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. C. Grant | clay | 1709 | 50–24 | 74 |
| M. Bouzkova | hard | 1747 | 128–86 | 214 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 14, 2026.
M. Bouzkova leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 2, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | M. Bouzkova | 2 - 0 |
| L | M. Trevisan | 2 - 0 | July 14, 2026 |
| L | M. Bouzkova | 0 - 2 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | K. Boulter | 0 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
| W | H. Tan | 0 - 2 | June 25, 2026 |
| W | J. Garland | 0 - 2 | June 24, 2026 |
| L | T. Valentova | 1 - 2 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | C. Y. Lee | 2 - 0 | July 22, 2026 |
| W | J. Bouzas Maneiro | 2 - 0 | July 20, 2026 |
| L | E. Mertens | 0 - 2 | July 6, 2026 |
| W | L. Samsonova | 1 - 2 | July 4, 2026 |
All July 2, 2026 results & picks →
═══════════════════════════════════════════ T. C. Grant vs M. Bouzkova — Wimbledon 1/32-finals (grass) 2026-07-02 ═══════════════════════════════════════════ MODELS ELO A: 0.529 ML A: 0.320 Blend A: 0.381 Market A: 0.298 (3.20 / 1.36) Value pick A edge +8.3% → ELO alone disagrees with market; ML agrees with market. Split signal. FORM — GRANT (grass, last) 06-30 W Boulter (1733 Strong) 6-4 6-2 DOM 06-25 W Tan (1713 Strong) 6-4 7-6 GRIND [Final] 06-24 W Garland (1660 Strong) 6-4 6-4 DOM 06-23 W Preston (1514 Avg) 6-1 2-6 6-4 GRIND Read: hot grass run, but opposition tops out at ~1730. Underlying ELO inflated by a long clay W35/W75 title streak, not grass class. FORM — BOUZKOVA (grass, last) 06-30 W Gibson (1554 Avg) 6-1 3-6 6-2 GRIND 06-21 W Navarro (1827 Elite) 7-6 4-6 6-2 GRIND [Nottingham TITLE] 06-20 W Pliskova (1749 Strong) 6-4 6-1 DOM 06-19 W Maria (1783 Strong) 7-5 6-0 DOM Read: genuine grass specialist — title + DOM/GRIND wins over 1750-1830. A clear tier above Grant's grass slate. FATIGUE Grant : 4 matches/14d, 276min court, B2B 2, last 06-30 Bouzkova: 5 matches/14d, 353min court, B2B 3, last 06-30 Edge → Grant (heavier load on Bouzkova, >60min court-time gap). Only point in the underdog's favor. NARRATIVE Let-down: Grant won a Final 06-25 (6d) = WEAK window; already backed it up 06-30. Bouzkova won Nottingham 06-21 (title) and also played through. Neither in a live let-down spot. Venue/surface: Bouzkova's momentum is ON grass and against quality. VERDICT — PASS The +8.3% "value" on Grant is an ELO mirage: her rating is propped up by clay ITF/125 titles, and her grass wins are vs a lower tier than Bouzkova's Navarro/Pliskova/Maria slate. ML (0.32) and the market (0.30) both price Bouzkova as the rightful favorite, and the surface/class read validates them. Bouzkova's fatigue edge for Grant is real but not enough to flip a consensus-backed class gap. No edge — no bet.