TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in A. De Minaur vs M. Arnaldi (Rome on 2026-05-08) — the market is efficient, with A. De Minaur favoured at 1.36.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | A. De Minaur | M. Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
44.1% | 55.9% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
42.0% | 58.0% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
67.3% | 32.7% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
51.2% | 48.8% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
69.8% | 30.2% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. De Minaur | hard | 1972 | 161–82 | 243 |
| M. Arnaldi | clay | 1861 | 133–70 | 203 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 31, 2026.
Level at 1–1 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 8, 2026 | Rome | clay | M. Arnaldi | 2 - 1 |
| Jan. 17, 2024 | ATP Australian Open | hard | A. De Minaur | 3 - 0 |
| L | B. Nakashima | 0 - 2 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | C. Hewitt | 2 - 0 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | S. Tsitsipas | 2 - 1 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | F. Cobolli | 0 - 3 | July 6, 2026 |
| W | Z. Svajda | 3 - 1 | July 4, 2026 |
| L | L. Musetti | 0 - 1 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | D. Dzumhur | 2 - 1 | July 16, 2026 |
| W | F. A. Gomez | 1 - 2 | July 15, 2026 |
| L | Q. Halys | 1 - 3 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | G. Hussey | 0 - 2 | June 23, 2026 |
All May 8, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used