TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in Z. Zhang vs D. Altmaier (Rome on 2026-05-06) — the market is efficient, with D. Altmaier favoured at 1.69.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | Z. Zhang | D. Altmaier |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
45.7% | 54.3% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
41.7% | 58.3% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
43.7% | 56.3% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
43.9% | 56.1% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Z. Zhang | hard | 1600 | 84–86 | 170 |
| D. Altmaier | clay | 1741 | 128–82 | 210 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 29, 2026.
Level at 1–1 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 6, 2026 | Rome | clay | D. Altmaier | 2 - 1 |
| July 28, 2023 | ATP Hamburg | clay | Z. Zhang | 2 - 0 |
| L | J. Wolf | 2 - 1 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | C. Broom | 2 - 1 | July 22, 2026 |
| W | T. Zink | 0 - 2 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | J. Boulais | 2 - 0 | July 14, 2026 |
| L | H. Searle | 0 - 2 | June 22, 2026 |
| W | A. Vukic | 1 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | A. Molcan | 2 - 1 | July 22, 2026 |
| W | R. Collignon | 2 - 0 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | L. Darderi | 0 - 2 | July 15, 2026 |
| W | H. Gaston | 2 - 0 | July 14, 2026 |
All May 6, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used