TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in M. Trungelliti vs Z. Svajda (Rome on 2026-05-06) — the market is efficient, with M. Trungelliti favoured at 1.38.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. Trungelliti | Z. Svajda |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
91.0% | 9.0% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
83.3% | 16.7% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
87.1% | 12.9% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
68.8% | 31.2% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Trungelliti | clay | 1739 | 160–87 | 247 |
| Z. Svajda | hard | 1741 | 147–102 | 249 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 22, 2026.
Z. Svajda leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 6, 2026 | Rome | clay | Z. Svajda | 2 - 1 |
| L | N. Mejia | 1 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | Y. Hanfmann | 0 - 2 | July 22, 2026 |
| W | J. M. Cerundolo | 0 - 2 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | A. Davidovich Fokina | 0 - 2 | July 15, 2026 |
| W | K. Jacquet | 0 - 2 | July 13, 2026 |
| L | A. Vukic | 2 - 0 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | C. Hewitt | 1 - 1 | July 26, 2026 |
| W | S. Kozlov | 2 - 0 | July 25, 2026 |
| L | A. De Minaur | 3 - 1 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | K. Majchrzak | 3 - 2 | July 2, 2026 |
All May 6, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used